Rob (@MLBModel on Twitter) is a seasoned executive and six-sigma black belt with extensive experience implementing complex business solutions through predictive analytics. An expert on Sports’ Betting Markets, he re-engineered his algorithms for predicting the outcomes of sporting events into DFS player projections. He brings his knowledge of algorithm building to The Fantasy Guru Elite team as our head of player analytics.
Our algorithm builder Rob (@mlbmodel) has run his advanced NBA algorithm to simulate every team's entire season. In addition to playing NBA DFS, Rob is also an advantageous gambler who bets on NBA totals and spreads daily. Use his advanced analytics, he has predicted the win totals for each team in the upcoming 2017-2018 NBA season. The results are found below. Note: Hover your browser over each column to see the exact win total. For those viewing on a mobile device, simply clicking a column will reveal the win total.
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TODAY WE HAVE INDIVIDUAL GAME PLAYS AND OVER 50 PLAYER PROP OVER UNDERS FOR YOU GUYS. MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW @TOMMYG @MLBMOBEL AND @GURUELITEDFS ON TWITTER FOR UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MORE PLAYS COME THROUGH. UPDATES AND NEW PLAYS WILL BE LISTED IN RED AT THE TOP OF THE BODY
(MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO TURN ON NOTIFICATIONS ON TWITTER FOR ALL 3 ACCOUNTS SO YOU GET ALERTED THE SECOND A PLAY COMES IN, BEING THAT SOME OF THEM WILL BE 2ND HALF OR IN GAME LINES WHICH ARE TIME SENSITIVE)
I think one of the single biggest misunderstandings that the DFS community and the general public has is where betting odds come from and how they are shaped. To be clear: THEY DO NOT COME FROM VEGAS! To understand betting odds it is important to understand the life cycle of a line.
Life Cycle of an MLB Money Line
- BetOnline (BOL) is almost always the 1st to open MLB numbers. They generally do this by 3PM the day before. Don’t be fooled though. These lines are as soft as they come and only low limit action is allowed on them. They do this mostly for PR reasons and the openers at BOL have 0 reliability for understanding a team's implied odds. As soon as 1 of the 2 big boys open up numbers (Pinny or CRIS), BOL moves numbers to match. If your market is small enough you can find nice value on these lines since the limits are too small for the sharps to hit they generally remain soft until the real numbers open. You should never use BOL numbers for anything DFS related.
Unlike NBA and NFL where bettors typically wager against-the-spread (ATS), MLB bettors primarily rely on moneyline (ML) wagers. The moneyline in MLB is usually a dime line, which in general, is the lowest vigorish of all the major sports. What a dime line means is if a team is -140, the dog would typically be +130 (a difference of 10 cents, hence “dime”). Granted, at many of your recreational books (square books), you may still see them hanging 15-20 cent lines, since players at those books don’t know any better.
Welcome to MLBMODEL’s Preseason Futures Guide! Rob has been making this guide for the last 8 years using advanced analytics and his statistical models. Below you will find two charts: my projected Team Win totals—which includes the betting line, O/U and more—and my projected Divisional Finishes/Winners, organized by league.
It’ll be a long and crazy season as usual, but I’m hoping this helps all you #EliteMafia members get off on the right foot. Good luck
Team Win Totals