Rob Penn | FantasyGuruElite

Rob Penn

Analytics, Projections, Tech      

Rob (@MLBModel on Twitter) is a seasoned executive and six-sigma black belt with extensive experience implementing complex business solutions through predictive analytics. An expert on Sports’ Betting Markets, he re-engineered his algorithms for predicting the outcomes of sporting events into DFS player projections. He brings his knowledge of algorithm building to The Fantasy Guru Elite team as our head of player analytics.


 Baseball Betting 101: Understanding MLB Betting Odds
Posted by Rob Penn on Tuesday, March 6, 2018 - 14:02

I think one of the single biggest misunderstandings that the DFS community and the general public has is where betting odds come from and how they are shaped. To be clear: THEY DO NOT COME FROM VEGAS! To understand betting odds it is important to understand the life cycle of a line.


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 MLB Model's +EV MLB Betting
Posted by Rob Penn on Tuesday, March 6, 2018 - 10:30

Possibly the most overused statement in life right now is declaring something to be +/-EV. For Example: “Eating that spicy fish sauce was -EV for my ass,” meaning said ass is not doing so well because of the spicy fish sauce. But in reality, the term only loosely fits the situation. Let’s break down what is being said here...................


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 MLB Model's +EV MLB Betting
Posted by Rob Penn on Monday, March 5, 2018 - 12:19

Possibly the most overused statement in life right now is declaring something to be +/-EV. For Example: “Eating that spicy fish sauce was -EV for my ass,” meaning said ass is not doing so well because of the spicy fish sauce. But in reality, the term only loosely fits the situation. Let’s break down what is being said here. EV means Expected Value, which is the value you would expect to receive on a certain situation. So let's assume that said individual’s baseline ass value is a 5. So on a normal day with no unforeseen variables his expected ass value is a 5. Now let's apply the spicy fish sauce to the “assquation” ( ass-equation): as stated earlier it was -EV for said ass' value. So after eating the spicy sauce this individual’s ass loses some value from 5, let’s just say his ass goes to a value of 2. So this value loss (-3) could be described as -EV since the Expected Value decreased on this poor man’s ass. So as you can see while the term is fine and we all understand what this person would mean by saying, “that was -EV for my ass” it only loosely relates in actual terms. The main reason the application of the term does not work well with assholes is we don’t have a baseline valuation on the expected value of an ass on a given day. Fortunately, valuing MLB games is much easier than setting a value on an asshole, and a much cleaner job I would assume.


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 MLB Model's MLB Futures Betting Guide
Posted by Rob Penn on Friday, March 2, 2018 - 15:00

Welcome to MLBMODEL’s Preseason Futures Guide! Rob has been making this guide for the last 9 years using advanced analytics and his statistical models. Below you will find two charts: my projected Team Win totals—which includes the betting line, O/U and more—and my projected Divisional Finishes/Winners, organized by league.

It’ll be a long and crazy season as usual, but I’m hoping this helps all you #EliteMafia members get off on the right foot. Good luck...


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 Baseball Betting 101: Understanding MLB Betting Odds
Posted by Rob Penn on Friday, March 2, 2018 - 01:38

I think one of the single biggest misunderstandings that the DFS community and the general public has is where betting odds come from and how they are shaped. To be clear: THEY DO NOT COME FROM VEGAS! To understand betting odds it is important to understand the life cycle of a line.

 

Life Cycle of an MLB Money Line

  1. BetOnline (BOL) is almost always the 1st to open MLB numbers. They generally do this by 3PM the day before. Don’t be fooled though. These lines are as soft as they come and only low limit action is allowed on them. They do this mostly for PR reasons and the openers at BOL have 0 reliability for understanding a team's implied odds. As soon as 1 of the 2 big boys open up numbers (Pinny or CRIS), BOL moves numbers to match. If your market is small enough you can find nice value on these lines since the limits are too small for the sharps to hit they generally remain soft until the real numbers open. You should never use BOL numbers for anything DFS related.

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