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Tonight is a small slate consisting of just six games. As I always say in these situations, there really is no such thing as a good cash game lineup tonight. That is not to say that many of you shouldn’t be playing in single entry 50/50’s anyways because there is no contest in DFS that allows for more winning than those. But this is a good night to take some of our cash game winnings and use them to try and hit a qualifier or GPP.
A quick primer for the Hitting Coach piece that will appear seven days a week at Guru Elite. There will be a smattering of data, pertinent to setting your daily squad up. There will be ballpark data. Which parks favor what type of hitters? There will be some BvP data, and yes, it does matter. We will try to list some umpire data if there is anything significant to be gleaned from it. In the end, I’ll throw all the data into the hopper and try to come up with some solid daily advice on the men that swing the lumber. BALLPARK DATA
Definitions For Advanced Stats:
K%: Strikeout Percentage = Strikeouts / Batters Faced. A 20 K% is considered average for a pitcher. 27 K% is considered excellent and 15 K% is considered poor.
For hitters, it measures how often a hitter strikes out on a per plate appearance basis. 20.0 K% is considered average. 25.0 K% is considered poor for hitters (we like that when picking pitchers) and 12.5 K% is considered great (we don’t like that when choosing a pitcher.) However, when looking at an entire team’s K%, last year's average was 21.2 K%. The higher the number, the better, when you’re looking for a pitcher with upside.
BB%: Walk Percentage = Walks / Batters Faced. 7.7 BB% is considered average for a pitcher. The lower the better. 4.5 BB% is considered excellent and 8.5 BB% is considered poor.
A FEW THINGS TO REMEMBER FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW TO THE MAFIA
I will try m put any updates on the article in RED at the top like I did for NFL, so make sure you check back periodically as lock approaches
As you all know, one of my strategies I use every night if I am going all in on a pitcher is to also put in what I call a “hedge team” where I stack AGAINST my main pitcher and pitch the popular pitcher I am FADING on a team. I do this incase my pitcher implodes and the chalk hits, so i at least have 1 team still live. It is a strategy everyone frowned upon when I started doing it 5 years ago, and now it is a popular strategy (pats self on back).
If you glance at starting pitchers and corresponding matchups on a slate and nothing sticks out to you, that’s usually a bad sign for cash games. Such is the case today where a dicey Michael Pineda is the most expensive pitcher on both FD (8.9k) and DK (11.7k). There’s nothing wrong with dialing down cash game exposure and saving bankroll for slates you feel more comfortable with. Though we have many games with double-digit implied run totals, we don’t have a high number of gas can pitchers. What we do have is several guys who are highly volatile from start to start (Pineda, Francisco Liriano, Derek Holland, Julio Teheran). It’s a good day for GPPs and to stack up some offenses in warm weather.
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
Vegas: Giants -145, 9
Rafael Montero v. Matt Moore
Montero: He gets a spot start here with Wheeler out of commission. Montero has been pitching mostly out of the bullpen and not doing it well this year. Between the 36 hits and 19 walks in 26 innings of work, his WHIP is nearing 2 and the ERA from all those baserunners is over 6. He does have K per inning upside, but who cares if you are giving up this many negative events. Both sides of the plate hit him well with big averages over ,300 this year and bigger OBPs due to the walks. It is not an ideal spot.
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Vegas: Rays -160, 9.5
Chris Tillman v. Jake Odorizzi
Tillman: He’s been a pile of hot garbage since coming off the DL. His best games were like 6 innings of three run ball. Lately though we have seen his worst. 5 innings of 5 or more runs consistently and that is bad. He got lit up for 9 a few starts back too, so he’s more gas can than anything else lately. His ERA is over 8, and I’ll take bats against any pitcher that putrid.
Rays: The Rays not only crush at home, but they crush righties in general. This is a great stack spot here. The big bat is Corey Dickerson and he has been elite this year. Logan Morrison is flashing the power too and Mallex Smith has been solid leading off. Include righties like Longoria and Souza and that is a high upside stacking a game Vegas has way too low a total in.