By the Numbers - 6/13

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  • Erick Fedde v. Sonny Gray

Fedde:

  • Been a solid K per inning guy throughout his minor league career and minimal innings in the bigs so far
  • He was able to limit both walks and HRs per 9 in the minors, but in his limited MLB sample, both were elevated
  • Skews as a ground ball pitcher with average levels of hard contact 
  • The sample size is only 20-25 MLB innings for Fedde, but the main concern is the HRs, allowing five of them and to both sides of the plate. 
  • This is a tough one for two reasons. The first is that he gives up homers and he faces a team that has power from top to bottom in that lineup. The second thing is he does have legit K upside and he faces a team that strikes out a ton. Much like Gaviglio was a boom or bust SP3, Fedde could be too. He could also get tagged for 2-3 homers here which could wipe out any upside from those strikeouts. 

Yankees: Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius (Anyone with power is in play, but I’d rather use those two as one-offs for power than stack here)

Gray:

  • Decent strikeout stuff, just shy of a K per inning
  • Walks are killing him. Normally a guy around 3 per 9, but over 4 per 9 this year
  • Lots of reasons here for why Gray has struggled. His walk rate is up. His BABIP is over .300 which is way up from his norms. His Hard hit rate is the highest of his career at 35% and his ground ball rate is the lowest of his career at only 46%. All of these numbers are moving in the wrong direction for him
  • Gray has pretty neutral splits that you can even argue are favorable for righties over lefties, which has been the case this season and slightly edging that way for his career numbers
  • The Nationals are 11th in wRC+ with a 103 against RHP and have the seventh lowest strikeout rate at just over 20%. This is not an easy spot for Gray

Nationals: Bryce Harper (Foot injury that forced him out of last game looks to be nothing serious and manager expects him to play today), Matt Adams, Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner (This lineup now has their lefties back and should be even tougher for RHPs)

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