Ray's Ramblings - Pitcher Report 5/16/18
Tyler Anderson is succeeding. Patrick Corbin has lost heat. Zack Godley is struggling to find his game. Guerra isn't to be counted on. What about Mr. Heaney? Lyles was nearly perfect, well close. Lucchesi hits the DL for the Padres. How good is Manaea, really? Alex Reyes dominates like it's a video game. Are Romano, Skoglund or Stratton anything more than streamers, and what about good ole Mr. Teheran? What is wrong with Goldschmidt? Is Albies really a better option than Altuve?
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Tyler Anderson has been pretty good for the Rockies. He has 43 strikeouts in 44 innings, and in his last eight starts he’s allowed as many as four earned runs just once. Remove his first start and he has a 3.02 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in eight starts. He’s had a substantial wOBA difference at home (.365) and on the road (.315) this season. Streaming, but hard to trust to maintain that current pace is he.
Patrick Corbin’s velocity is down about two mph, and that’s a growing concern.
That said, he’s allowed six runs over 17 innings the last three outings so it’s not like he’s getting beat. He’s also struck out 20 batters while walking seven. Keep an eye on the mph, but with the strikeouts still present, the talk of major concern seems unwarranted. Realize that Corbin isn’t an elite arm, and that his production will regress having nothing to do with his lost heat.
Zack Godley hasn’t been bad, but he certainly hasn’t performed up to expectations either. In 3-of-4 outings he’s allowed four runs, and he’s allowed five homers and 11 walks in those four games. That’s flat out awful. The grounders are still there, as are the strikeouts, though they have pulled back a full point from last season, as I predicted they would in his Player Profile. Better than not, and still owns the skills to succeed. It’s a nice time to try and buy from a perturbed owner.
Junior Guerra allowed nine runs over 10 innings heading into his last start. He faced the D’backs and allowed two runs over six innings in that last start. Still, he only struck out three while walking four. The guy has a 4.26 BB/9 rate this season, and his swinging strike rate is down 1.5 percent from his career mark at 9.1 percent though he somehow has a career best 8.76 K/9 rate. He’s not that guy. Hell, since the start of last season his K/BB ratio is just 1.70, and that’s flat out awful. Don’t believe folks.
Andrew Heaney has 39 punchouts and just nine walks in 34.1 innings. Massive success to this point. He’s also been dialed in his last four starts, allowing a total of six runs. The skills are solid. However, he’s throwing less than 40 percent of his pitches in the strike zone, awful, and there’s always the health concern that is omnipresent (he threw six innings in 2016 and 49 innings last season). Yes, he threw 54 innings the last two seasons. #BeCautious
Joey Lucchesi has been placed on the DL with a right hip strain, and he commented that he thinks he will be just fine. It’s possible he will miss one, or maybe not even a single start. The Padres have two days off in the near future so it seems like a good time to rest the youngster, not a bad idea given that he threw 42 professional innings in 2016 and 139 innings last season.
Jordan Lyles was chasing history as his perfect game bid ended one out short of the club record of 7.2 innings by Chris Young on September 7th, 2008. In two starts that’s one run allowed. Same time, Lyles has made 12 starts in his last 93 outings, and he’s, quite frankly, just not good. Move on.
Seam Manaea has made nine starts with a 2.35 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. He’s been tremendous walking just eight batters in nine starts. If he was 7-2 instead of the 5-4 he actually is, he would be the talk of baseball. He’s gone 1-2 while allowing 12 runs his last three starts and folks are getting nervous. Why? Did you really think he was gonna pull a 1971 Vide Blue season on ya? He’s gonna be awfully solid, but not great. Reset your expectations with his preseason Player Profile.
Jake Odorizzi has made nine starts for the Twins and is just 3-2, and he’s Jake Odorizzi, so no one is looking/paying attention. Maybe you should? He has a 3.35 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His career marks are 3.80 and 1.22. He has an 8.38 K/9 rate versus a career mark of 8.22. The real concern is the walk. His career mark is 3.02 per nine. This year the rate is 3.91. History says the number will regress, as does his first pitch strike rate (1.1 percent above his norm) though his 40.1 zone percentage is down from his career but the same as last season when he walked 3.83 batters per nine. Some concern, but mostly good things.
Alex Reyes flat out dominated Monday night, and that adjective might not even be strong enough. In his second outing on his way back from Tommy John surgery, Reyes struck out 12 batters over five innings on just 80 pitches. By the way, he hit 99 on the radar gun three times, and for good measure, he even hit triple-digits three times. "I thought I pounded the zone pretty well," said Reyes. "Could have done a little better with first-pitch strikes, I think I faced 18 guys, got ahead of 9, so a little bit of work to do. Overall, it was a good outing and my arm feels good, and that's what's important.” The current plan is for him to potentially be activated from the DL on May 28th. It’s unclear if he will relieve or start for the Cardinals, but they want his pitch count up so he can start if needed, and they have previously said that they are leaning toward him starting this season when he returns. #StayTuned
THIS IS EPIC – YOU MUST WATCH.
Sal Romano was, surprisingly bombed by the Giants in his last outing (6 ER in 2.1 IP). That effort ended a run of 5-straight games where he allowed two or fewer earned runs. The last time he walked more than two batters in a game was seven outings ago, but he’s also struck out two or fewer batters in 3-of-4. Streaming in mixed leagues is his game, especially against predominantly right handed lineups (.314 wOBA) and at home (.299 wOBA).
Eric Skoglund held the Rays to two runs over 7.2 innings Monday. That’s 2-straight quality starts for the Royals hurler who has dropped his ERA to… 5.58. Overall, the only thing that’s intriguing at the moment is his walk rate (2.23 per nine). Middling is thy name at the moment.
Chris Stratton is 4-3 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.40 WHIP for the Giants. Through 116.2 big league innings, he has a 4.17 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He’s been battered the last four starts for six homers, 12 walks and 18 runs. So much for that early season start of success. He’s not startable in any format at the moment.
Julio Teheran allowed four runs last time out, but that’s four runs allowed in three starts. He’s 4-1 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Those ratios look awfully like his career marks of 3.59 and 1.20. Good is thy name, Mr. Teheran.
A DEFENSE OF GOLDY
Paul Goldschmidt might be down, production wise, but here’s why I still believe.
ALTUVE OR ALBIES?
At least most of you got it right in chose the excellence of Jose Altuve over the great seven weeks of Ozzie Albies who is already down .033 points in batting average and .050 points in OBP despite playing the best baseball he can. It's just not easy to make up for the gain such a substantial batting average offers.
You can hear Ray, Monday through Friday, on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Ray is on The Fantasy Drive 7-10 PM EST M/TU/TH/F and 8-10 Weds, and he’s also on the Guru Elite Show Thursday from 2-4 PM EST. You can follow Ray on Twitter at @baseballguys.