Ray's Ramblings - Pitcher Report 7/11/18

Posted on 2018-07-11 12:03 by Ray Flowers

 

RAY FLOWERS      ​​

 

Chase Anderson is starting to look a bit better. Archer is back. Berrios is really, really good. DeSclafani needs to curtail the home run ball. Doolittle is hurt after all. Duffy continues to be one of the most inconsistent lefties in baseball. Elfin has been stupendous. Hendricks' ratios are... tremendous. Kershaw is back and getting lots of outs. Minor and Montas are helping in AL-only setups. Nola is a star, though Nova isn’t. Which lefty is better... Eduardo Rodriguez or Andrew Suarez? Urena and Wheeler are also profiled. 

 

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Chase Anderson allowed six runs to the Phillies. In the four outings since he’s allowed a total of four runs. He’s also struck out 23 batters in 22 innings. The GB/FB ratio is 0.95 in that time and the hard-hit ball rate is 44 percent. He’s pitching slightly better, but he’s not back to last season’s levels, nor would I expect that to happen this season.

Chris Archer finally returned to the bump and allowed three runs over 3.1 innings against the Tigers. It’s possible he’s dealt, which would obviously up his “Q” in the fantasy game. Remember that though his ERA is 4.41, both his SIERA and xFIP are a half run lower.

Trevor Bauer history from Stats. After 12 Ks Tuesday night… “He now has 7 consecutive starts with 8+ strikeouts and no home runs allowed, the second-longest streak in the live-ball era (Pedro Martinez, 8 straight in 2002).”  

Jose Berrios allowed six runs against the Cubs but he’s rebounded by allowing four runs, over 14 innings, against the Twins and Royals. He has a 6.50 K/BB ratio and a 0.92 WHIP his third time through the order, and lefties (4.13 K/BB) and righties (5.45 K/BB) are at his mercy when he’s on. One of my favorite young hurlers in the game.

The oldest Bigfoot picture?

Anthony DeSclafani allowed one run over seven innings against the Indians. He’s also walked just four men his last three outings. That shows the success he can have. However, note that he’s allowed a homer in 5-straight games and a total of nine big flies in that span. Job number one is curtailing the home run, if he wants to reach the heights that are expected of him.

Sean Doolittle heads to the DL with a toe injury. Of course, this was after everyone involved said the toe wasn’t an issue and that he would be fine. Turns out he has a pinched nerve, is in a walking boot, will miss the All-Star Game, and it’s unclear how much time he will miss though we are told it won’t be long. I’ll just say this. Anytime a guy is hurt, and the team says he is fine, just expect a DL stint (especially with a hurler). Usually a DL stint doesn’t happen, but when it does at least you won’t feel royally burned by clubs. Kelvin Herrera figures to close.

Danny Duffy is 4-8 with a 4.89 ERA. He’s just been a mess this season, which can be seen in his last six outings. Here are the earned runs he’s allowed each time out: zero, seven, zero, one, six, zero. He simply cannot put starts together with any degree of consistency, and it’s making him impossible to start since we never know when a solid outing is in the cards. If trying to find a spot to use him, target a left-handed lineup (.279 wOBA) while he’s on the road (.321 wOBA).

Zach Eflin lost his streak of consecutive starts with a win (six) in his last outing as he allowed three runs over five innings. Since the start of June, those seven outings have led to a 2.32 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP and 6.33 K/BB. That’s impressive, off the charts, stuff. He’s not that guy though. Hardly anyone is if we’re being honest. He’s missing the sweet spot of bats with tremendous frequency with a 20.8 percent hard-hit ball rate. That’s just not sustainable though. Roll with him everywhere until further notice, but know that even with the velocity up, and with the pitching being stupendous, that the gravy train will run out eventually.

Not dead, but still alive.

Kyle Hendricks should be dropped, something a few folks have suggested to me on Twitter of late. Of course, I said ‘don’t do that.’ Last time out he allowed one run, unearned, over 8.1 innings as his manager finally let him go deep into a game. Since the start of the 2016 season his 2.86 ERA is a top-5 number while his 1.10 WHIP is a top-10 mark. He doesn’t punch out many, and sometimes doesn’t go deep in games, but the ratios simply sparkle.

Clayton Kershaw has made 12 starts. Only twice has he allowed three earned runs. The last time that happened was April 25th. His last four starts, since returning from ill health, he’s posted a 2.25 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP. He “only” has 17 strikeouts in 20 innings, but if this is the “bad” Kershaw we’re all in good shape. Just downgrade your expectations slightly, and hope his back stays healthy.

Mike Minor has allowed three homers the last two games, but he’s continuing to have success for the Rangers. Over his last six outings he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each outing. Lefties have hit a mere .233 off Minor with a .247 OBP. They have powered the ball a good deal though with a .458 SLG.

Frankie Montas was sent to Triple-A Tuesday. This is likely just to get Ryan Dull, a bullpen arm, for the next few days. The expectation is that he will return after the A.S.B. to start Tuesday versus Texas. In eight starts Montas has gone 5-2 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. After allowing six runs to the Tigers he’s allowed three runs his last two times out.

Aaron Nola won his 12th game last time out, the most wins before the A.S.B. for a Phillies pitcher since Curt Schilling in 1999. From CSN Philly “Over his last 36 starts, dating to June 22, 2017, he ranks fourth in the majors in innings pitched (233), eighth in ERA (2.70), 10th in WHIP (1.09), eighth in FIP (2.88), 12th in opposing batting (.219) and he is tied for third with 20 of those old-fashioned wins.” #StarAsExpected

Ivan Nova’s last six starts include a 3.72 ERA. Remove his beating at the hands of the Dodgers and the number in the other five outings is 2.30. It’s more than just the one outing though as he’s allowed eight homers his last three outings. He’s solid, nothing more, nothing less.

Eduardo Rodriguez has made 18 starts with an 11-3 record, a 3.62 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP with 105 punchouts in 99.1 innings. By any account it’s not only been a successful start to the season, but an impressive one. Same time, he’s made 18 starts and thrown… 99.1 innings. Twice in his last three outings he’s thrown six innings, but he has never thrown seven innings, not once, this season. Averaging just 5.52 innings a start, it’s pretty remarkable that he has 11 wins, even with the Sox offense behind him.

Andrew Suarez continues to roll along for the Giants. Actually, he’s been downright impressive of late. Over his last four outings he’s permitted one run, and one run only, each time. Going back six outings the numbers include a 3.00 K/BB ratio, a 2.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He owns a 4.05 K/BB ratio on the year, and has a 52.5 ground ball rate. Toss in the home park in San Francisco, where he has a .281 wOBA, and you have yourself a usable pitcher in pretty much every format.

Jose Urena has made two starts since returning from the DL with a shoulder issue and he’s allowed two runs in the two outings. He has 10 Ks and three BBs in those two outings. He’s had a lot of success this season, a good deal really, with a .242/.311/.356 slash line against them.

Zack Wheeler update. Zack has allowed five runs his last three games. Solid work. He has a 2.09 K/BB ratio against lefties but the mark soars to 3.40 against righties. That 4.85 BB/9 rate against lefties shows that he still lacks the refinement to take his game to the next level.

 

You can hear Ray, Monday through Friday, on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Ray is on The Fantasy Drive 8-10 PM EST Monday-Friday, and he’s also on the Guru Elite Show Thursday from 2-4 PM EST. You can follow Ray on Twitter at @baseballguys