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 Vlad's Values - Week 11
Posted by Vlad Sedler on Friday, November 17, 2017 - 16:59

It should be a fun 11-game main slate (12 games on DK) with the contest likely to garner the most DFS exposure taking place in Mexico City. It’s the Patriots taking on the Raiders with a Vegas total that has moved up 4.5 points since open (50 to 54.5). The Patriots actually stayed in Denver to practice and get further acclimated to the elevation (Mexico City is 2000 feet higher than Denver), while the Raiders decided to stay in NorCal and won’t get their fill of wet burritos and other extra-curricular activities until they arrive on Saturday. Not getting acclimated earlier will likely show on the field, especially for a secondary that won’t be able to keep up with Cooks and company...


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 The NFL Winter Manifesto
Posted by Josh Hornsby on Friday, November 17, 2017 - 16:58

With bad weather (cold temperature plus wind) in the forecast for many games this weekend, I wanted to take a look at how this environment might affect fantasy scoring, and if the climate should steer us away from any seemingly juicy matchups.

The first part of this analysis, naturally, would be to check out how weather has affected the over/under on games played in a particular set of conditions. I screened out contests prior to Week 14, because I felt it was unfair to include games where teams may not have more complete information about their opponents. I examined games from 2000 to 2015 – in particular, temperature, wind speed, over/under, and game total.

The first grouping of data you’ll see shows density plots of game outcomes compared to the over/under set by bookmakers. On these plots, the x-axis is a simple calculation of total points scored in a game minus the game total. I have plotted a red vertical line representing the “break-even” point for this analysis, which is the final point total equaling the over/under.

What I found, in a nutshell, is that games played in cold weather and little wind tend to remain in line with the over/under set by bookmakers. When wind picks up, however, games quickly begin to skew toward the under. The first cluster of plots examines games played in temperatures at or below 40F. What we’re looking for here is the shaded area under the plot line. The larger the area, the higher percentage of occurrences. 


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 @MagicSportsGuy's Week 11 Primetime Rundown
Posted by Kevin Adams on Thursday, November 16, 2017 - 19:08

 

  • Titans -7 O/U 44
  • Team Totals: Titans - 18.5, Steelers - 25.5
 

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 DraftCheat's Week 11 DFS Plays - 11/16
Posted by DraftCheat on Thursday, November 16, 2017 - 19:07

Thursday Night Football

Tonight’s TNF game features the Tennessee Titans visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers with the Steelers installed as 7 favorites with a 44 total. The Steelers offense will of course benefit from being at home here, where they’ve historically performed much better with Ben Roethlisberger under center, and the hope for the Steelers would be that that trend continues tonight...


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 Week 11 DST Breakdown
Posted by Ted Schuster on Thursday, November 16, 2017 - 09:56

For Ted's top DST Plays for Week 11, subscribe to fantasyguruelite.com today!

 

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 Week 11 TE Breakdown
Posted by Ray Flowers on Thursday, November 16, 2017 - 09:20

Ray Flowers takes a look at the tight end position and tries to help you glean all the necessary insight to choose that right option this week. Ray will break down the ends with the good matchups and try to steer you away from the potholes in the road ahead in Week 11 – and we all know there are tons of loses each week for folks as the old tight end has failed to consistently produce this season for most folks.

 
 

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 Week 11 RB Breakdown
Posted by Ted Schuster on Wednesday, November 15, 2017 - 17:44

To get this week's Running Back Breakdown, subscribe to fantasyguruelite.com today!

 

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 Week 11 QB Breakdown
Posted by Ray Flowers on Wednesday, November 15, 2017 - 16:18

Each week on Tuesday, Ray Flowers will break down the quarterback position. There are a handful of signal callers that you always can feel confident in starting. We know the names. At the other end of the spectrum, there are a handful of quarterbacks you should never be starting.


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 Week 11 Kicker Recommendations
Posted by Mike Horn on Wednesday, November 15, 2017 - 13:10

Kickers averaged 7.8 FP in Week 10.  The system bounced back to have a good week.  "Starts" were the highest-performing group with a 10.3 FP and .786 winning percentage.  "Sits" did poorly, meaning the system got them right:  5.6 FP and .722 winning percentage.


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 Week 11 Elite CB/WR Matchups
Posted by Joe Dolan on Tuesday, November 14, 2017 - 13:51

This column is an early-week look at what WRs are looking better or worse than usual against their secondary counterparts. Few NFL teams use true shadow coverage anymore, but if a team does, or is employing a different strategy this week, in particular, we’ll note it here.


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