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 Playing the Percentages: NFL Week 17
Posted by Jeff Collins on Saturday, December 31, 2016 - 17:28

Below you will find some of the guys I’m considering playing at low ownership in tournaments (ownership % indicated next to DraftKings price-tag), along with some highly-owned players that I’m thinking about fading...


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 Vlad's Values: Week 17
Posted by Vlad Sedler on Saturday, December 31, 2016 - 09:16

This is probably the case with you as well as you dive into a slate. You know I’ve had my share of busts, but many of my value plays that have paid off here this season have been early-week gut feels that I essentially back-filled with data or an explanation on why they are strong plays. If you’ve played fantasy long enough, sometimes that strong gut feel on a player isn’t backed up data, or it’s a squeaky wheel that you just know is in prime position to bounce back. There’s a weekly flow that we can sometimes properly time – though it sometimes works against you. You and I don’t get it right all the time, but there’s a true difference between gut feels that are natural and ones that we’ve forced based on something we may have read in passing. Being able to distinctly differentiate these is key as there are truly only one or two genuine intuition-based plays within us on a weekly basis. After that, we’re just forcing it. They may not even come early in the week – perhaps it’s something you hadn’t thought about all week that comes to you on Sunday morning (ie, Dez Bryant for me twice this year).

Far be it from me to claim to be all-knowing, but it’s something that really works when my mind is clear and not heavily influenced from outside thoughts and ideas. I’ve been able to translate some of my season-long success in baseball and football over to DFS, but it’s a constant uphill battle that has as many bad days as good ones. The one thing that is for certain is I need to be in the right mindset to write and to build lineups. Doing so when the mind is not clear will usually lead to overthinking and forced decisions.


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 FantasyGuru's Week 17 Stat-Pack
Posted by Graham Barfield on Friday, December 30, 2016 - 15:27

Courtesy FantasyGuru.com's Graham Barfield In the weekly “Stat Pack”, I will go team-by-team and breakdown three key statistics that helps explain the week that was. The attempt here isn’t so much to provide atypical game recaps, but instead to provide rich context about the games that may not be obvious. Here is the Week 17 Stat Pack. It’s the final one of the 2016 regular season… try not to shed any tears: Arizona Cardinals    Larry Fitzgerald has just three top-12 (WR1) finishes in 2016, two of which came in Week 1 and Week 5. Fitzgerald had four top-12 (WR1) finishes last season. David Johnson is 46th on the all-time yards from scrimmage list with one game to go. He needs 146 yards from scrimmage to crack the top-20 all-time and 229 yards to crack the top-10. Atlanta Falcons       After missing two weeks, Julio Jones returned to play on 62% of the Falcons’ snaps in Week 16. Jones has played on 77% of Falcons’ snaps this season. Devonta Freeman is averaging a mammoth 1.3 rushing touchdowns/game at home this season versus just 0.14 rushing scores/game on the road.


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 Week 17 Kicker Recommendations
Posted by Mike Horn on Friday, December 30, 2016 - 13:13

Courtesy FantasyGuru.com’s Staff Writer Mike Horn

This holiday edition of the Kicker Recommendations will be a little abbreviated. Kickers averaged 7.8 FP in Week 16, matching their seasonal average. The system had pretty much a mediocre (or worse) week as well:

Start/Sit Decisions For Kickers in Week 16, 2016

Recommendation

Average FP

W

L

T

PCT

Sit

8.0

5

4

0

0.556

Neutral

6.9

2

5

4

0.364

Marginal Start

8.4

3

4

0

0.429

Start

8.4

3

2

0

0.600


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 Playoff Scenarios/Playing Time Issues
Posted by Ben Kukainis on Thursday, December 29, 2016 - 10:04

We’re entering Week 17 of the NFL regular season and the playoff picture is nearly set. In the AFC, all 6 playoff teams have been determined, but seeding is still up in the air for 4 of the 6 teams (Pittsburgh and Houston are already set as the No. 3 and No. 4 seed, respectively). In the NFC, Green Bay and Detroit have yet to clinch, while Tampa Bay and Washington are still in the hunt. We’ve broken down the scenarios that remain for clinching as well as seeding, and have taken a look at which teams might consider resting some of their starters based on situation, injury, kickoff time, and coaches’ recent remarks.

Note: Some information on seeding and scenarios courtesy of ESPN.com.

American Football Conference

  • Teams Mathematically Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Ravens, Titans, Broncos, Colts, Bills, Bengals, Chargers, Jets, Jaguars, Browns

New England Patriots (13-2) – Have clinched AFC East and a first-round bye

Clinches home-field advantage with:

  1. Win/tie OR
  2. Oakland loss/tie

Next Game: @ Miami Dolphins (10-5), Sunday 1:00pm

Notes: The Pats have clinched their division for the eighth straight season (a new NFL record) and a first-round bye for the seventh straight season. They haven’t yet locked up home-field advantage yet, as the Raiders are just one game behind them, though the loss of Derek Carr deals a significant blow to Oakland’s chances of beating out NE for the top seed. Either way, the Pats Week 17 game against Miami is meaningless for them (and to an extent, the Dolphins as well, as they have clinched a playoff berth). Prior to Week 17 last year, Belichick did beat around the bush a little but hinted at resting starters, though their roster was fairly depleted and beaten up. However, they lost to the Jets in Week 16, so their starters did end up playing the entirety of Week 17. In Week 17 of the 2014 season however, after the team had clinched a first-round bye, Tom Brady played just 48% of the snaps, giving way to Jimmy Garoppolo.


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 Week 16 Injury Roundup
Posted by Ben Kukainis on Tuesday, December 27, 2016 - 17:08

Courtesy FantasyGuru.com

 

Quarterbacks

Brown QB Robert Griffin III (concussion) is in concussion protocol and while HC Hue Jackson left open the possibility that RG3 will be cleared in time for Week 17, it seems more likely that Cody Kessler will start, according to the Akron Beacon Journal.

Jet QB Bryce Petty (shoulder) was placed on IR, ending his season.

Raider QB Derek Carr (broken leg) will have a 6-8 week recovery timetable after he undergoes surgery today, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. He is likely out for the rest of the season.

Titan QB Marcus Mariota (fibula, ankle) has a 4-5 month recovery timetable following surgery to repair his fractured fibula/ankle, according to Titans Online writer Jim Wyatt. Mariota is scheduled to have surgery on Wednesday.


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 Week 16 Snap Report
Posted by Ben Kukainis on Tuesday, December 27, 2016 - 16:08

Subsciber Exclusive Content! Each week I’ll be giving a full and complete list of snaps played at the RB, WR, and TE position. They are sorted by the percentage of team snaps played, not the raw snaps number. Also, be sure to read Benny’s NFL Targets and Touches article, released every Tuesday.


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 Tommy G's Week 16 DFS Rundown
Posted by Tommy G on Saturday, December 24, 2016 - 10:22

Subscriber Exclusive Content!


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 @MagicSportsGuy's Cash Game Plays - Week 16
Posted by Kevin Adams on Saturday, December 24, 2016 - 09:53

For more on Daily Fantasy Sports and about Kevin Adams, read Adams’ Daily Fantasy Sports Glossary for a breakdown on all the terms used in this piece.

In this quick hitter that will come out on Saturdays, I will give my optimal plays for your cash game rosters. I like to wait as long as possible to release so I can get Friday practice report data, movement in Vegas lines and game totals, and to gauge ownership percentage.


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 Benny's Week 16 Props
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Saturday, December 24, 2016 - 09:53

Here are the Props for Week 16 courtesy of our friends at Ladbrokes...


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