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 NFL Week 16 Cheat Sheet
Posted by Kevin Adams on Friday, December 23, 2016 - 21:24

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 Playing the Percentages: NFL Week 16
Posted by Jeff Collins on Friday, December 23, 2016 - 21:24

Below you will find some of the guys I’m considering playing at low ownership in tournaments (ownership % indicated next to DraftKings price-tag), along with some highly-owned players that I’m thinking about fading...


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 FantasyGuru's Week 16 Stat-Pack
Posted by Graham Barfield on Thursday, December 22, 2016 - 16:06

Courtesy FantasyGuru.com's Graham Barfield

 

In the weekly “Stat Pack”, I will go team-by-team and breakdown three key statistics that helps explain the week that was. The attempt here isn’t so much to provide atypical game recaps, but instead to provide rich context about the games that may not be obvious.

Here is the Week 16 Stat Pack:

Arizona Cardinals   

  1. David Johnson needs 200 receiving yards in the Cardinals’ final two games to have both 1,000 yards rushing and receiving.
  2. If Johnson can get 200 receiving yards in Week 16 and 17, he would join Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig as the lone players to have both 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in a single-season all-time.
  3. David Johnson is on pace for 420.8 cumulative PPR points, which would essentially be the second-best season since LaDainian Tomlinson (474 points) in 2006. Tomlinson also scored 439 in 2003, the year Priest Holmes rushed for 27 touchdowns and scored 447 PPR points.

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 Fantasy Aces Strategy: Week 16
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Thursday, December 22, 2016 - 15:56

Hey guys, this is your boy Benny Ricciardi from Fantasy Guru Elite bringing you some ideas for roster construction for week 16 of the NFL season. This is the last week we have of solid football without many guys being in jeopardy of a week off, so let’s try to make some money here. Quarterback Drew Brees - Brees at home in the dome has been a thing all year. Hell, it has been a thnig his whole career. Put those receivers on the fast track with a trigger man like him and it is almost unfair for opposing defenses.  Coming off that monster game last week I doubt we get him at under 5% ownership this time around, but if he goes for his usual 300+ yards and a multiple Touchdowns are we really going to care how chalky he is? Andrew Luck - I am calling my shot here on a huge day for Luck. This is a big total and the game drawing all the attention is the Saints and Bucs. Oakland has been torched through the air this year too and Luck has played better of late. If you are looking for the low owned guy who could go nuts, I think Luck is a prime candidate for it this week and a guy who can win you a tournament.


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 Vlad's Values: Week 16
Posted by Vlad Sedler on Thursday, December 22, 2016 - 14:43

Our season is almost over and we get an odd slate with Christmas falling on a Sunday this year. Hence, the main slate boasts 11 games on Saturday and that will be the main focus below. There is no Milly Maker on DK this week, but if you can’t pony up the $1,500 entry to their Main Event, you can attempt some DFS basketball qualifiers to it on Thursday and Friday. If you don’t play hoops, check out our content from Jeff Collins and Benny Ricciardi as well as the optimizer to help guide you.

There are three games that stick out to us on Saturday – each of them with implied totals of over 50 points and all will garner much of the Week 16 chalk. The Bucs-Saints rematch should be a bit more exciting since the teams are playing on the fast track in New Orleans. It’s hard to imagine something similar to the 16-11 dud from Week 14. Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas will eat into one another’s ownership share, and I’m digging Thomas’ matchup as he will see more of Vernon Hargreaves III while Cooks dances more often with Brent Grimes. Nevertheless, Cooks is a mismatch with anyone speed-wise, so I wouldn’t downgrade much, if at all. Though it may seem that Thomas is Brees’ preferred red zone target, Cooks has two more Red Zone looks (14 to 12) than Thomas this season.


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 Week 16 Kicker Recommendations
Posted by Mike Horn on Thursday, December 22, 2016 - 13:09

Courtesy FantasyGuru.com’s Mike Horn

After 4 straight weeks averaging under 8 FP, kickers posted a season-high average of 9.3 FP in Week 15. Generally, the algorithm has xa good week for the top categories when this happens. While I think that's great, it's like picking gaining stocks in a bull market – it might not be the stock-picker as much as the fact that it's hard to miss when everything is going up. That said, "Marginal Starts" were awful damn good, averaging 12.0 FP with a .900 W-L percentage. But "Starts" fared worse than "Neutrals:" 8.8 FP and .667 vs. 9.7 and .679. The high scores for the "Neutrals" as a group illustrate my point about picking in an up-market: 9.7 FP looks good when 7 FP is the baseline, but when the average is 9.3 FP, it's only a little better than average – and the "Starts" were below average. "Sits" meanwhile had a poor W-L PCT of .286, but only averaged 6.7 FP – while most of them topped 7 FP, overall the recommendation to avoid them was sound:


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 Week 15 Snap Report
Posted by Ben Kukainis on Tuesday, December 20, 2016 - 15:33

Subsciber Exclusive Content! Each week I’ll be giving a full and complete list of snaps played at the RB, WR, and TE position. They are sorted by the percentage of team snaps played, not the raw snaps number. Also, be sure to read Benny’s NFL Targets and Touches article, released every Tuesday.


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 Targets and Touches: Week 15
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Tuesday, December 20, 2016 - 14:42

Subscriber Exclusive Content! Benny Ricciardi's Excel Spreadsheet consisting of every player's number of touches and targets from the previous week, as well as all weeks thus far!


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 Week 15/16 Monday/Thursday Options
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Monday, December 19, 2016 - 11:31

Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins

Vegas: Redskins -7, O/U 51 (Spread jumped 3 points since opening at -4)

Both teams are middle of the pack in terms of pace, so not much of a bump up for either, although Carolina does play slightly faster. Washington has the 4th ranked DVOA offense so far this season and faces a Carolina defense ranked a respectable twelfth. The key though is that the strength of the Washington attack is the passing game and the Panthers secondary has been torched this year. The game does not set up great for Rob Kelley with Carolina being so good against the run. They allow only the 25th most fantasy points to running backs. They do allow the tenth most to fantasy QBs and the 5th most fantasy points to wide receivers, which is how I expect the Redskins to dominate them. Kirk Cousins is easily the chalk QB on this slate and he should continue his solid play. Since Week 3, he has averaged over 270 yards and 2 touchdown passes per game. I expect him to be above those averages tonight. As for the WR group, the best matchup by a mile and a half is for Jamison Crowder in the slot against Leonard Johnson. Johnson has been torched and Crowder is having a career year. The Cousins/Crowder connection is definitely one I would be building lineups around. The price points are very friendly here as well. D-Jax is tournament only for me as his games tend to be hit or miss and he has the toughest matchup on the outside. Garcon has a slight advantage, but is more of a cash game kind of play due to his possession receiver style.


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 Benny's DraftKings 4X Value Matrix - Week 15
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Sunday, December 18, 2016 - 09:43

This is a rather interesting Sunday-only slate we have to attack this week. I say that because weather has played a big part in pointing to who we should be looking at. We only have four games on this entire slate with Totals over 47 and only a handful of teams with expected team totals of 24 or more. Keep this in mind, because you are fighting a losing battle if you do not have exposure to some of these games, especially with some of these totals dropping big time. We saw the total drop in nine of the thirteen games to be played here. Some are due to weather as the rain expected in NY drags down that total by 4, the blizzard in Buffalo dragged that total down by 3, and the frigid temperatures expected in Chicago dragged that total down by a whopping 6 points.

The four games that are expected to be high scoring are the New Orleans/Arizona matchup, San Francisco/Atlanta, San Diego/Oakland, and TB/Dallas games. You will notice quite a few players from these games on the list and I think it is smart to make sure you have some exposure to those four. The rest are basically 45 points or below. I’m not saying fade all the other games, but it is unlikely that no one from the top 4 total games ends upon a winning roster, so make sure you use some of them.


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