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 Week 15/16 Monday/Thursday Options
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Monday, December 19, 2016 - 11:31

Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins

Vegas: Redskins -7, O/U 51 (Spread jumped 3 points since opening at -4)

Both teams are middle of the pack in terms of pace, so not much of a bump up for either, although Carolina does play slightly faster. Washington has the 4th ranked DVOA offense so far this season and faces a Carolina defense ranked a respectable twelfth. The key though is that the strength of the Washington attack is the passing game and the Panthers secondary has been torched this year. The game does not set up great for Rob Kelley with Carolina being so good against the run. They allow only the 25th most fantasy points to running backs. They do allow the tenth most to fantasy QBs and the 5th most fantasy points to wide receivers, which is how I expect the Redskins to dominate them. Kirk Cousins is easily the chalk QB on this slate and he should continue his solid play. Since Week 3, he has averaged over 270 yards and 2 touchdown passes per game. I expect him to be above those averages tonight. As for the WR group, the best matchup by a mile and a half is for Jamison Crowder in the slot against Leonard Johnson. Johnson has been torched and Crowder is having a career year. The Cousins/Crowder connection is definitely one I would be building lineups around. The price points are very friendly here as well. D-Jax is tournament only for me as his games tend to be hit or miss and he has the toughest matchup on the outside. Garcon has a slight advantage, but is more of a cash game kind of play due to his possession receiver style.


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 Benny's DraftKings 4X Value Matrix - Week 15
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Sunday, December 18, 2016 - 09:43

This is a rather interesting Sunday-only slate we have to attack this week. I say that because weather has played a big part in pointing to who we should be looking at. We only have four games on this entire slate with Totals over 47 and only a handful of teams with expected team totals of 24 or more. Keep this in mind, because you are fighting a losing battle if you do not have exposure to some of these games, especially with some of these totals dropping big time. We saw the total drop in nine of the thirteen games to be played here. Some are due to weather as the rain expected in NY drags down that total by 4, the blizzard in Buffalo dragged that total down by 3, and the frigid temperatures expected in Chicago dragged that total down by a whopping 6 points.

The four games that are expected to be high scoring are the New Orleans/Arizona matchup, San Francisco/Atlanta, San Diego/Oakland, and TB/Dallas games. You will notice quite a few players from these games on the list and I think it is smart to make sure you have some exposure to those four. The rest are basically 45 points or below. I’m not saying fade all the other games, but it is unlikely that no one from the top 4 total games ends upon a winning roster, so make sure you use some of them.


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 Tommy G's Week 15 DFS Rundown
Posted by Tommy G on Saturday, December 17, 2016 - 18:20

Subscriber Exclusive Content!


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 @MagicSportsGuy's Cash Game Plays - Week 15
Posted by Kevin Adams on Saturday, December 17, 2016 - 18:19

For more on Daily Fantasy Sports and about Kevin Adams, read Adams’ Daily Fantasy Sports Glossary for a breakdown on all the terms used in this piece.

In this quick hitter that will come out on Saturdays, I will give my optimal plays for your cash game rosters. I like to wait as long as possible to release so I can get Friday practice report data, movement in Vegas lines and game totals, and to gauge ownership percentage.


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 NFL Week 15 Cheat Sheet
Posted by Kevin Adams on Saturday, December 17, 2016 - 17:00

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 The NFL Winter Manifesto
Posted by Josh Hornsby on Saturday, December 17, 2016 - 16:55

With bad weather (cold temperature plus wind) in the forecast for many games this weekend, I wanted to take a look at how this environment might affect fantasy scoring, and if the climate should steer us away from any seemingly juicy matchups.

The first part of this analysis, naturally, would be to check out how weather has affected the over/under on games played in a particular set of conditions. I screened out contests prior to Week 14, because I felt it was unfair to include games where teams may not have more complete information about their opponents. I examined games from 2000 to 2015 – in particular, temperature, wind speed, over/under, and game total.

The first grouping of data you’ll see shows density plots of game outcomes compared to the over/under set by bookmakers. On these plots, the x-axis is a simple calculation of total points scored in a game minus the game total. I have plotted a red vertical line representing the “break-even” point for this analysis, which is the final point total equaling the over/under.

What I found, in a nutshell, is that games played in cold weather and little wind tend to remain in line with the over/under set by bookmakers. When wind picks up, however, games quickly begin to skew toward the under. The first cluster of plots examines games played in temperatures at or below 40F. What we’re looking for here is the shaded area under the plot line. The larger the area, the higher percentage of occurrences. 


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 Benny's Week 15 Props
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Saturday, December 17, 2016 - 16:50

Here are the Props for Week 15 courtesy of our friends at Ladbrokes. Some interesting things I will point out as we go through them...


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 Playing the Percentages: NFL Week 15
Posted by Jeff Collins on Saturday, December 17, 2016 - 16:50

Below you will find some of the guys I’m considering playing at low ownership in tournaments (ownership % indicated next to DraftKings price-tag), along with some highly-owned players that I’m thinking about fading...


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 Fantasy Aces Strategy: Week 15
Posted by Thad Houston on Friday, December 16, 2016 - 21:09

What's up y'all. This is the one and only RadThad with this week's NFL article for Fantasy Aces. The holiday season is in full effect and so is the race for this NFL season's playoffs. There are lots of teams still working hard for a shot at postseason play, which means there are a hefty number of players putting forth their best efforts. The "naughty" players that fall short will get a lump of coal in their stocking. Here are some players that are on my "nice" list for cash games and tournaments on Fantasy Aces this week.

QUARTERBACK 

Matt Ryan (ATL) $7300 vs. SF (29th ranked pass DVOA)

Atlanta has the highest team total on the slate (33 points). While predicting which Falcon will have the biggest performance on Sunday, "Matty Ice" is a good bet to be heavily involved (the 49'ers allow 255.5 passing yards/game). He isn't the best value at QB on Aces, but Ryan represents the safest choice at the position in cash games.

Kirk Cousins (WAS) $6800 vs. CAR (16th ranked pass DVOA)


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 FantasyGuru's Week 15 Stat-Pack
Posted by Graham Barfield on Friday, December 16, 2016 - 14:07

Courtesy FantasyGuru.com’s Graham Barfield

In the weekly “Stat Pack”, I will go team-by-team and breakdown three key statistics that helps explain the week that was. The attempt here isn’t so much to provide atypical game recaps, but instead to provide rich context about the games that may not be obvious.

Here is the Week 15 Stat Pack:

Arizona Cardinals   

  1. Carson Palmer’s last five weekly finishes are as follows: QB18, QB19, QB18, QB3, and QB21.
  2. Palmer ranks 27th in fantasy points per drop back this season, per PFF; he was fifth in that metric in 2015.
  3. JJ Nelson has the same amount of WR2 or better (top-24) performances (2) as Michael Floyd and John Brown combined.

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