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 @MagicSportsGuy's Cash Game Plays - Week 15
Posted by Kevin Adams on Saturday, December 17, 2016 - 18:19

For more on Daily Fantasy Sports and about Kevin Adams, read Adams’ Daily Fantasy Sports Glossary for a breakdown on all the terms used in this piece.

In this quick hitter that will come out on Saturdays, I will give my optimal plays for your cash game rosters. I like to wait as long as possible to release so I can get Friday practice report data, movement in Vegas lines and game totals, and to gauge ownership percentage.

 NFL Week 15 Cheat Sheet
Posted by Kevin Adams on Saturday, December 17, 2016 - 17:00

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 The NFL Winter Manifesto
Posted by Josh Hornsby on Saturday, December 17, 2016 - 16:55

With bad weather (cold temperature plus wind) in the forecast for many games this weekend, I wanted to take a look at how this environment might affect fantasy scoring, and if the climate should steer us away from any seemingly juicy matchups.

The first part of this analysis, naturally, would be to check out how weather has affected the over/under on games played in a particular set of conditions. I screened out contests prior to Week 14, because I felt it was unfair to include games where teams may not have more complete information about their opponents. I examined games from 2000 to 2015 – in particular, temperature, wind speed, over/under, and game total.

The first grouping of data you’ll see shows density plots of game outcomes compared to the over/under set by bookmakers. On these plots, the x-axis is a simple calculation of total points scored in a game minus the game total. I have plotted a red vertical line representing the “break-even” point for this analysis, which is the final point total equaling the over/under.

What I found, in a nutshell, is that games played in cold weather and little wind tend to remain in line with the over/under set by bookmakers. When wind picks up, however, games quickly begin to skew toward the under. The first cluster of plots examines games played in temperatures at or below 40F. What we’re looking for here is the shaded area under the plot line. The larger the area, the higher percentage of occurrences. 

 Benny's Week 15 Props
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Saturday, December 17, 2016 - 16:50

Here are the Props for Week 15 courtesy of our friends at Ladbrokes. Some interesting things I will point out as we go through them...

 Playing the Percentages: NFL Week 15
Posted by Jeff Collins on Saturday, December 17, 2016 - 16:50

Below you will find some of the guys I’m considering playing at low ownership in tournaments (ownership % indicated next to DraftKings price-tag), along with some highly-owned players that I’m thinking about fading...

 Fantasy Aces Strategy: Week 15
Posted by Thad Houston on Friday, December 16, 2016 - 21:09

What's up y'all. This is the one and only RadThad with this week's NFL article for Fantasy Aces. The holiday season is in full effect and so is the race for this NFL season's playoffs. There are lots of teams still working hard for a shot at postseason play, which means there are a hefty number of players putting forth their best efforts. The "naughty" players that fall short will get a lump of coal in their stocking. Here are some players that are on my "nice" list for cash games and tournaments on Fantasy Aces this week.


Matt Ryan (ATL) $7300 vs. SF (29th ranked pass DVOA)

Atlanta has the highest team total on the slate (33 points). While predicting which Falcon will have the biggest performance on Sunday, "Matty Ice" is a good bet to be heavily involved (the 49'ers allow 255.5 passing yards/game). He isn't the best value at QB on Aces, but Ryan represents the safest choice at the position in cash games.

Kirk Cousins (WAS) $6800 vs. CAR (16th ranked pass DVOA)

 FantasyGuru's Week 15 Stat-Pack
Posted by Graham Barfield on Friday, December 16, 2016 - 14:07

Courtesy’s Graham Barfield

In the weekly “Stat Pack”, I will go team-by-team and breakdown three key statistics that helps explain the week that was. The attempt here isn’t so much to provide atypical game recaps, but instead to provide rich context about the games that may not be obvious.

Here is the Week 15 Stat Pack:

Arizona Cardinals   

  1. Carson Palmer’s last five weekly finishes are as follows: QB18, QB19, QB18, QB3, and QB21.
  2. Palmer ranks 27th in fantasy points per drop back this season, per PFF; he was fifth in that metric in 2015.
  3. JJ Nelson has the same amount of WR2 or better (top-24) performances (2) as Michael Floyd and John Brown combined.

 Vlad's Values: Week 15
Posted by Vlad Sedler on Friday, December 16, 2016 - 11:19

We covered Ertz here last week, but I was surprised by his low ownership rate. As I mentioned on Twitter a few nights ago, Zach Ertz has been a late-season (aka draft league playoffs) beast over the last couple seasons averaging nearly twice as many receptions and yards over Weeks 16-17 as he had in all other weeks. Wentz and Ertz have built a great rapport lately and Ertz leads all tight ends with 52 targets over the past five weeks. Of course, it helped that Jordan Matthews missed the game in Week 13 and Dorial Green-Beckham last week. The two low-percentage plays here were Jarvis Landry and the Falcons defense. Landry flew under the radar simply because of the “@ARI” next to his name, but we know that Landry is one of the league’s best slot receivers, that Patrick Peterson wasn’t likely to move into the slot to cover him and that DeVante Parker was hobbled, likely leading to more targets for Landry. Not to mention, Landry was fresh off a game where he saw 14 targets and caught 11 of them.

Of course it’s easy to look back at this team in hindsight and think we could have built it, but one of us truly could have. Every week is a new puzzle piece to solve and three-quarters of the fun is our journey trying to get there.

 TNF Slate Rundown
Posted by Kevin Adams on Thursday, December 15, 2016 - 18:45

What up Elite Mafia! It’s Hedgy Stacks… aka @MagicSportsGuy, here to give you a quick TNF breakdown. Tonight’s game is UGLY, and that’s being kind. The Rams opened up with a 13 point team total and has since moved DOWN 1.5 points to 11.5. I can honestly say I have never seen a team total that low (ever)...

 Week 15 Kicker Recommendations
Posted by Mike Horn on Thursday, December 15, 2016 - 17:08

Courtesy’s Mike Horn

Kickers averaged 7.3 FP in Week 14, continuing a downward trend. The kicker algorithm struggled badly. "Sits" were pretty good calls, averaging 6.0 FP with a .750 winning percentage. The other categories were not. "Starts" just matched the overall average of 7.3 FP and had a losing record. "Marginal Starts", which had been the new place I was touting to find your kicker for the week were pitiful: 5.2 FP and only 1 right call out of 5. "Neutrals" were the top-scoring group at 8.3 FP and had a slightly better than .500 W-L record. Not a good way to enter the fantasy playoffs: