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 Benny's DraftKings 4X Value Matrix: Week 13
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Sunday, December 4, 2016 - 09:10

This is a rather strange week in NFL DFS on DraftKings. The pricing has changed a little bit. Some of the RBs are more expensive than usual. The RBs and TEs as a whole feel a tad cheaper across the board. The WR group feels pretty reasonably priced. I also think we have some clear chalk plays this week, so let’s talk about how to handle them first.

CHALK CITY

Drew Brees - The Lions secondary is garbage and Brees is at home on the fast track where his numbers are already insanely good. He is the clear chalk option at QB and my cash game quarterback. QB ownership is usually spread the most and the difference between the highest owned guy and the rest of the field is rarely enormous. I do think the margin will be big this week with Brees, but you are not going to see him 40-50% owned like some are exaggerating. I think 25% is a fair assumption. Everyone else will be 15 or below so you have other options. If Brees goes Ham, you are likely to need him to cash. If he doesn’t though, you can really get a leg up if you hit on the guy who does. My biggest problem with Brees is how do you cover him? What I mean by that is, which of his pass catchers do you link up with him? Brandin Cooks had zero catches and was a squeaky wheel all week. Does that mean he gets greased with a ton of targets here?


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 Tommy G's Week 13 DFS Rundown
Posted by Tommy G on Sunday, December 4, 2016 - 06:24

Guys I think will be very highly owned, these guys tend to be better for Cash and you don’t want to use too many of them in GPPs… a couple is fine… but we need to separate in GPPs. These projections ARE NOT OFFICIAL, they are just my guess-timations. I tend to be very good at projecting ownership, so you can proceed with confidence. Ownership projections are based on DK pricing since it is the one that is messed up...


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 @MagicSportsGuy's Cash Game Plays - Week 13
Posted by Kevin Adams on Sunday, December 4, 2016 - 06:24

For more on Daily Fantasy Sports and about Kevin Adams, read Adams’ Daily Fantasy Sports Glossary for a breakdown on all the terms used in this piece.

In this quick hitter that will come out on Saturdays, I will give my optimal plays for your cash game rosters. I like to wait as long as possible to release so I can get Friday practice report data, movement in Vegas lines and game totals, and to gauge ownership percentage


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 NFL Week 13 Cheat Sheet
Posted by Kevin Adams on Sunday, December 4, 2016 - 06:24

Subscriber Exclusive Content!


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  Benny's Week 13 PROPS
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Sunday, December 4, 2016 - 06:23

Here are some interesting Prop Bets for NFL week 13 offered by our friends at Ladbrokes this week. We only included the top part of the list, so if you do not see someone, that means they project for below the lowest amount. This list also does not include the Monday night game and is for the Sunday only slate...


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 Playing the Percentages: NFL Week 13
Posted by Jeff Collins on Saturday, December 3, 2016 - 19:56

Below you will find some of the guys I’m considering playing at low ownership in tournaments (ownership % indicated next to DraftKings price-tag), along with some highly-owned players that I’m thinking about fading. Honestly this week there isn’t much “bad chalk”. The only guy that I’ll semi-fade is probably Cooper, but I’ll still have some exposure. That said, I’ll still identify some potential fades and low ownership plays.


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 Fantasy Aces Strategy: Week 13
Posted by Thad Houston on Friday, December 2, 2016 - 20:53

What's up y'all. This is the one and only RadThad with this week's NFL article for Fantasy Aces. Wow! This NFL season is flying buy but there's more than enough time left to "win all of the monies". Bye weeks are almost done so there are a lot of great plays to be had. Here are some of my favorite cash game and GPP plays on Fantasy Aces this week.

QUARTERBACK 

Drew Brees (NO) $7850 vs. DET (32nd ranked pass DVOA)

Now, y'all already know that I get excited when my boy Brees and my hometown team, the Saints, get to play at home. When you throw in a matchup against one of the worst pass defenses in the league I get downright giddy. If Brees can complete 28 of 36 passes for 310 yards and four touchdowns against the Rams, just imagine what he can do against the Lions. I know he's an expensive cash game option, but let's face it...if you're not rostering Brees this weekend then who the heck are you rostering?!


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 FantasyGuru's Week 13 Stat-Pack
Posted by Graham Barfield on Friday, December 2, 2016 - 14:15

Courtesy FantasyGuru.com’s Graham Barfield

In the weekly “Stat Pack”, I will go team-by-team and breakdown three key statistics that helps explain the week that was. The attempt here isn’t so much to provide atypical game recaps, but instead to provide rich context about the games that may not be obvious.

Here is the Week 13 Stat Pack:

Arizona Cardinals   

  1. The Cardinals have run the most offensive plays in the NFL, but are 19th in points scored and 9th in yards gained.
  2. David Johnson has finished as the PPR RB1 four times this year and top-8 eight times.
  3. Since taking over as the starter in Week 13 of 2015, David Johnson has finished as a RB1 (top-12) in 14-of-15 starts (not including Week 17). Wow.

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 Vlad's Values: Week 13
Posted by Vlad Sedler on Friday, December 2, 2016 - 10:01

I can’t stress it enough. Tweaking and overthinking in DFS is the devil. There’s no worse feeling then seeing a player you liked on Wednesday and removed from your lineup Sunday morning score a touchdown at 1:04pm (10:04am PT). I nearly won a GPP over at Yahoo this week and ironically it was on a team I just ‘set and forgot’. Similar to when I won a GPP on FantasyDraft back in Week 4. And when I came within a few points of winning the Milly Maker two years ago – it was a weekend where I was on vacation with my newly-wed wife and I decided not to tweak a lineup I set that Thursday.

Meanwhile, on DK and FD, I hemmed and hawed, tweaked and tinkered all week, all the way up to the deadline – moving off players I liked that would have made it a decent day instead of a rough one. Though not much can be said about Brandin Cooks – I would have played him in that spot 10 times out of 10. Cooks will be covered by the Lions’ best cornerback, Darius Slay. Though as we’ve learned time and again, it takes just one play for a guy like Cooks with his 4.3 speed to make rostering him worth it. After expressing his frustration about not seeing any targets against the Rams, I think Brees makes a point to get Cooks the ball. Just keep in mind how many weapons the Saints have. Just an embarrassment of riches - we simply never know where the touchdowns are coming from.


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 Week 13 Kicker Recommendations
Posted by Mike Horn on Thursday, December 1, 2016 - 17:17

Courtesy FantasyGuru.com’s Mike Horn

Kickers averaged 6.6 FP, another bad week for them. The kicker algorithm followed the kickers. "Starts" were basically a random crapshoot, scoring an average FP of 6.7 and with a W-L record under .500. "Marginal Starts" remained a better choice, with an average FP of 7.3 that topped all four categories and a good W-L PCT of .667. "Neutrals had a good week in W-L (.682) although a mediocre average score (6.9). At least the algorithm got the "Sits" correct: they were bad at 5.2 FP, with none topping 7 FP:


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