Thursday Night Football
Tonight’s game features a dismal affair between two dreadful offenses in the Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens. The game features a slate low 37.5 Vegas total with the Ravens installed as 3-point favorites. Nice way to kick off the week! Thanks, NFL!
This column is an early-week look at what WRs are looking better or worse than usual against their secondary counterparts. Few NFL teams use true shadow coverage anymore, but if a team does, or is employing a different strategy this week in particular, we’ll note it here.
For the most part, we’re not going to mention the truly great players (it’s always a good idea to play Antonio Brown), unless the situation is so bad that a stud should be an obvious cash-game play.
We also finish up with some sneaky TE and RB plays in the passing game.
This column will be updated later in the week when more information is available.
AJ Green vs. Colts CBs
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers ($3.800 DK & $5,400)
Some people thought C.J. Beathard would breathe some life into the 49ers offense but they were sadly mistaken. As a big Hawkeye fan, I knew the outcome would not turn out well after watching him play over the last few seasons. Beathard is not a NFL QB. The Eagles defense is in a great spot as the 49ers are 7th in sacks allowed, 13th in turnovers and 24th in pass blocking per PFF. Philadelphia is 6th in takeaways and 1st in pass rush per PFF.
Ray Flowers takes a look at the tight end position and tries to help you glean all the necessary insight to choose that right option this week. Ray will break down the ends with the good matchups and try to steer you away from the potholes in the road ahead in Week 8.
Ezekiel Elliott ($9,200 DK & $9,000 on FD) is coming off a monster game and has another solid match-up this week. The Cowboys are 2nd in rushing yards per game, 2nd in yards per carry, 5th in TDs and 7th in run blocking per PFF. The Redskins are 25th in run defense per PFF and 26th in fantasy points per game allowed to RBs. GPP and Cash playable.
Each week on Tuesday, Ray Flowers will break down the quarterback position. There are a handful of signal callers that you always can feel confident in starting. We know the names. At the other end of the spectrum there are a handful of quarterbacks you should never be starting. We know that as well. It’s the twenty quarterbacks in the middle that really matter. Ray will review the entire position each week letting you know which quarterbacks should be started and/or avoided on a weekly basis.
NOTE: Players are listed in the tables in order of their weekly ranking (#1 is the best play of the week). Not all players will have a write up below, so to find out how they are being profiled for the week check out the order they are listed in the tables.
*To see the odds for game action this week be sure to visit our NFL Odds Page.
**DEF Rank: For a PPR setup. The lower the number the better the matchup (#1 is the best matchup while #32 is the worst).
For starters, on DK we are looking for a minimum 3X out of our QBand honestly we want more than that. About half of the QBs this week project for at least 3 point per $1000 of cost. We only have six guys at 3.2 or better, so let’s focus on them. The highest PP$ play this week is Andy Dalton. It makes sense since this Indianapolis secondary is a joke. In fact, the run D sucks too, so the entire defense is a joke. They rank #30 DVOA and are allowing a top ten amount of fantasy points to every skill position. They give up the 6th most to opposing QBs, 5th most to WRs, and 9th most to TEs, so Dalton has weapons to choose from. He is $5700 and projects for just shy of 20 fantasy points for 3.5 PP$. He’s not the highest raw scorer, but he is the best on a per dollar basis and it’s easy to see why.
Ravens -3.5 O/U 37.5
Team Totals: Miami - 17.25, BAL- 20.25
Tied for the lowest game total on the slate, clearly this one can be faded. These teams are 31st and 32nd in yards per game so it is tough to envision anything breaking out that is going to make or break the slate. However you may have some decisions to make if you’re playing on the degen special, TNF to London, two game slate, or thinking about late swapping in the Mon-Thursday slate.
Kicker scoring in Week 7 averaged 7.9 FP – pulled down by the injury to Dan Bailey (2 FP) and Matt Bryant's (-1 FP), two kickers who normally are reliable point producers (and "Starts" last week), and three shutouts. Despite those hiccups, the system worked (or the blind pig found an acorn, take your pick). Starts" were the best-performing group, scoring 9.9 FP with a .750 W-L record – the only losses being Bailey and Bryant. "Marginal Starts" again did great, averaging 14.0 FP, although that was just one winning kicker (Stephen Hauschka). "Neutrals" had a decent 7.1 average FP but a poor 0.308 winning percentage: the average scoring was boosted by Kai Forbath (23 FP), Chris Boswell (19 FP), and Justin Ticker (14 FP). The other 10 "Neutrals" averaged 3.6 FP. "Sits" were the lowest scoring group (5.8 FP) with the system getting two-thirds right, just as I would want:
In the weekly Stat Pack, I will go team-by-team and break down three key statistics that help explain the week that was. The attempt here isn’t to provide typical game recaps, but instead to provide forward-looking context about the games that may not be obvious.