Coffin Corner - Elite Stats for Week 6

Posted on 2017-10-12 16:30 by Ray Flowers

 

RAY FLOWERS      

 

Each week Ray Flowers will run the numbers for QB, RB, WR and TE. What do you need to know about the men on your fantasy squads? Do they have a good matchup? Are the players trending upward or downward? Do they show a decided lack of consistency? It’s all in the Elite Stats of the Week piece.

 

QUARTERBACKS

Tom Brady's last 13 games against the Jets: 26 touchdowns, four picks. He’s thrown for 300-yards in 4-straight games this season.

Kirk Cousins has thrown for six scores and no picks his last three outings, while averaging 255 yards. Last season, he averaged 307.3 yards an outing.

Jared Goff has five scores and no picks in two starts on the road. He has a rough matchup this week with the Jaguars. His yards per attempt this season is 8.3, nearly double the 4.3 mark from his ghastly rookie season.

Brian Hoyer’s last 11 road starts include 17 touchdown passes and just five picks. Hoyer has thrown 49 and 46 pass attempts the last two games. That’s a massive level of passes attempted, which makes it surprising that he’s only tossed two scores in that time.

Cam Newton has six scores and one pick the last two games. He’s also thrown for 300-yards in both; the second time in his career he’s thrown for 300 in back-to-back games.

Carson Palmer has eight scores and just one pick his last four games at home. He’s thrown for 300-yards in 6-straight at home. Palmer also leads the league with 227 pass attempts, which is 25 more than anyone else. For goodness sakes, he’s averaged 16.4 more passes a game than Cam Newton.

Dak Prescott has been a top-12 quarterback every week this season. Oddly, the Cowboys are scoring 3.0 offensive touchdowns a game this season versus 3.1 per game last year.

Philip Rivers has thrown for 300-yards in 3-of-4 against the Raiders in Oakland. Rivers also has five scores and just one pick his last two outings. He’s averaging 273 passing yards an outing. Last year, the mark was 274.1.

Aaron Rodgers in nine games against the Vikes in Minnesota: 20 touchdowns, two interceptions. He’s thrown seven scores against no picks the last two games this season.

Ben Roethlisberger has two touchdown passes in three games. His current yards gained per completion mark is 10.6. The last time the mark was that low was... never (career 12.3). His yards gained per attempt is 6.5, and that too is a career worst number (career 7.8). His 61.5 completion percentage would be a 9-year low. It ain’t good folks.

Matt Ryan has a massive 111.2 QB Rating his last 10 games at home. Ryan has tossed five picks the last two weeks. Last year, he threw a total of seven all season.

Trevor Siemian has 12 touchdown passes his last six games at home. He also has one touchdown pass his last two outings this season and he’s yet to throw for 260 yards in an outing. In fact, his 222 yards per contest mark is 21 yards below the mark he posted last season.

Alex Smith has a QB Rating of 100 in his last six outings. Smith leads the NFL with a 76.6 completion percentage and a 125.8 QB Rating. No quarterback who has ever lived has done that (the records are 71.6 and 122.5).

Matthew Stafford’s average effort last five against the Saints: 336 yards, 2.2 touchdowns, one interception. Over his last three games this season, he’s tossed just three touchdown passes, and the last two outings, he’s failed to throw for 230 yards.

Carson Wentz has averaged 294 yards and 1.67 touchdowns his last three games on the road. He’s upped his after depth per throw from 7.5 to 9.9. That’s a massive jump. The result has been a 1.5 yard increase per attempt (7.7).

Jameis Winston has thrown for 300-yards in 3-straight games. Winston tossed three picks in his second game, but he’s only thrown three interceptions in four outings.

Touchdown leaders inside the 10-yard line: Aaron Rodgers 8, Deshaun Watson 6, Alex Smith 5, Tom Brady 5, Drew Brees 5, Tyrod Taylor 5 and Russell Wilson 5.

 

RUNNING BACKS

In 2016, Jay Ajayi appeared in 15 games. Let’s remove his first three outings where he carried the ball five, seven and six times. That’s 12 games with at least 10 carries in ‘16. He had a 10-yard run in 10 of those outings. This season, he has three 10-yard runs in four games. The guy has 44 runs of 10 yards since the start of last season... and three this year. The o-line just isn’t opening up any holes for him to get to the second level.

I can’t understand why I continue to get Buck Allen questions. Here’s the data. (1) Allen is sixth in the NFL in red zone carries with 14. (2) He’s 7th in the NFL in carries inside the 10-yard line (seven). (3) He’s second on the Ravens in red zone targets. (4) He leads the team with 20 receptions. (5) Allen leads football with the lowest time behind the line of scrimmage on runs in football. He’s getting the ball, making a cut, and going. His time is one hundredth faster than the mark of Leonard Fournette. (6) In a traditional PPR setup, Allen’s ranked 15th at the running back position in points.

C.J. Anderson has gone for 100-yards from scrimmage his last two at home. In 24 games at home, he’s averaging 5.1 YPC with 18 touchdowns (16 rushing) in 24 outings.

Le’Veon Bell has averaged 160.3 yards from scrimmage the last three games against the Chiefs. Bell also leads the NFL in routes run as a pass catcher (169). The next closest is Andre Ellington (143). Note that Alvin Kamara is way down at 16th with just 69 pass routes, six less than Mark Ingram. Plus side, Kamara is second in the league in yards per route run (2.13), just behind Duke Johnson (2.23). They are the only two men over two. Week 6 is big for Alvin Kamara owners. With Adrian Peterson out of the mix, he has a chance to take over a much bigger share of the pie. At the same time, his snap counts the last three weeks are 26, 29 and 35 percent. He does have at least five targets per game, and clearly has a weekly role.

LeGarrette Blount has eight touchdown his last 11 games on the road.

Here are Tarik Cohen’s snap rates the last four games: 63 percent, 43 percent, 27 percent and 28 percent. He saw 21 targets the first two games. He has nine the last three. Benny Cunningham caught two passes last game. Cunningham had 14 snaps last week to 17 for Cohen. Oh, by the way, Cohen’s leads football with time behind the line of scrimmage as a ball carrier at 3.59 second. He’s gotta get through the line better if he has any chance (teammate Jordan Howard is fourth worst, though, a half second better at 3.08 as the Bears simply aren’t opening up holes quickly enough).

Efficiency is defined by Next Gen Stats as “Rushing efficiency is calculated by taking the total distance a player traveled on rushing plays as a ball carrier according to Next Gen Stats (measured in yards) per rushing yards gained. The lower the number, the more of a North/South runner.” The most straight ahead runner is LeGarrette Blount (3.14), just ahead of Alex Collins (3.22), Kareem Hunt (3.24), C.J. Anderson (3.31) and Bilal Powell/Elijah McGuire (3.46). The bottom three guys, who aren’t running north/south, are three guys lacking any success on the ground: Paul Perkins (6.47), Christian McCaffrey (6.2) and Joe Mixon (6.0).

Devonta Freeman has 13 rushing touchdowns his last 10 games, and in his last five at home, he’s done the end zone boogie six times. Moreover, his last seven outings at home it’s been 13 total touchdowns (12 rush, one catch).

Frank Gore has four touchdowns his last three against the Titans.

Todd Gurley’s last two games on the road: 364 yards from scrimmage, four touchdowns.

Jordan Howard has averaged 87.9 yards from scrimmage in nine games on the road in his career.

Kareem Hunt leads all players with 28 missed tackles on runs. He’s slippery as all get out. Leonard Fournette (20) and LeGarrette Blount (19) round out the top three. The top-2 runners in football in Elusive Rating, according to PFF, are Blount and Hunt. The Chiefs back is also the league leader with nine runs of 15 yards. No other back has more than five.

No running back in football has faced eight men in the box more than Chris Ivory. On 52.6 percent of the snaps he’s taken this season, there have been eight men fronts. Teammate Leonard Fournette is third (47.7), just behind Mike Gillislee (47.8). On the other end, the guys who aren’t facing eight men in the box... it’s shocking to see the top full-time running back is Jay Ajayi (15.8 percent). Lev Bell is at 18.63 percent, just ahead of Alex Collins (18.9) and Lamar Miller (19.3).

Duke Johnson has scored in 3-straight games. He’s also carried the ball 16 times in five games and he saw just three targets last week.

Doug Martin has three rushing scores his last four games.

LeSean McCoy leads the Bills in targets with 32. He’s leading the Bills with a career-high 25 percent team share of passes.

Lamar Miller has averaged 104.3 yards from scrimmage his last 10 games at home with six touchdowns.

DeMarco Murray has scored in 3-straight against the Colts. In those three outings, he’s averaged 88 yards from scrimmage a game.

Latavius Murray was usurped in Week 5 by Jerick McKinnon. Same time, Murray still saw 14 touches and is likely to be the goaline back. He’s not droppable folks.

For all of you in on the Adrian Peterson thing, a note. The Saints runners have posted 1.26 yards per carry before contact. That number is double the 0.61 of the Cardinals. That 0.61 mark is the lowest in football. He’s also not going to see any third down work according to his head coach.

Chris Thompson has scored his last two games at home. In fact, he has seven touchdowns (four rush, three catch) his last eight games.

 

GREEN ZONE RUSHING

Here are all the men with at least four carries inside the 5-yard line (the Green Zone).

 

Attempts

Yards

TD

%Rush

Todd Gurley

8

7

3

88.9

Carlos Hyde

8

3

2

88.9

Leonard Fournette

7

7

4

77.8

Devonta Freeman

7

4

4

87.5

Mike Gillislee

6

7

4

85.7

LeGarrette Blount

6

-1

1

75.0

Marshawn Lynch

5

8

2

100.0

Jonathan Stewart

4

-1

0

66.7

DeShone Kizer

4

-2

2

50.0

Jordan Howard

4

11

3

100.0

% Rush = percentage of team runs inside the five-yard line for that player.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Keenan Allen has caught at least eight passes the last two games against the Raiders.

Danny Amendola leads the league with a 85.2 catch percentage (minimum 20 targets). He’s caught 23 of 27 targets. Compare that to numbers like 48.4 (Martavis Bryant), 52.6 (Rishard Matthews) and 64.9 (T.Y. Hilton).

Kelvin Benjamin has just one score this season (Week 5). He’s been held under 60-yards in 2-of-3 outings and has just 10 receptions his last three games.

Antonio Brown leads the league in terms of percentage of air yards per team. Brown has seen 44.9 percent of the Steelers air yards. A.J. Green is just behind at 44.5, with DeAndre Hopkins at 42.9. They are the only three men over 40 percent.

Jaron Brown has seen at least six targets in each of his last four games. He’s seen a total of 35 targets the last four outings. He’s alternated up and down. Check out his weekly yardage totals: 0, 73, 27, 105 and 39.

Dez Bryant is averaging just 52.8 yards a game this season, miles from his 67.5 career mark. Same time, he’s seed 9.6 targets a game, well above his career mark of 8.1.

Martavis Bryant is getting 7.7 yards of cushion on his 31 targets, the second highest mark in football to the 7.8 mark of Travis Benjamin. Marvin Jones (3.6) and Sammy Watkins (3.8) are getting jammed the most.

Amongst players with at least 20 targets, none is seeing a smaller percentage of air yards per target than Randall Cobb, who has a mark of 5.0 yards. The next wideout on the list is Jarvis Landry (6.1), followed by Golden Tate (6.3).

Amari Cooper has been on the field for 91 percent of the Raiders plays. Here are the percentage of team targets he’s seen in his three seasons: 2015 (22 percent), 2016 (23 percent) and 2017 (21 percent).

Michael Crabtree has scored in 4-straight against the Chargers. He has five touchdowns his last four games at home.

Jamison Crowder scored seven times last season. He hasn’t scored this season. He’s averaging one score every four games for his career. Last season, he averaged 12.6 yards a catch. This year, the mark is 7.6. Last year, he averaged 4.2 receptions a game. This year, the mark is 3.5. That preseason talk of him pushing 100 receptions this season was always sheer folly. Folks that bought that line of thought and took Crowder as their WR2 are really paying the price now.

Stefon Diggs has scored in the last two matchups with the Packers.

Mike Evans has four touchdowns his last six games. His last 11 on the road: 5.9 catches, 89 yards and 0.55 touchdowns.

Will Fuller is a name to sell high on. There just isn’t any volume headed his way. The guy has seen only nine targets, catching six, in two games.

Devin Funchess has caught 14 balls for 123 yards and three scores the last two outings.

Pierre Garcon hasn’t scored yet. In 3-of-5 outings, he’s seen at least 10 targets. It’s happened in all odd weeks. In those three games, he’s averaged seven receptions and 105.7 yards.

Tyreek Hill is creating the most separation of any player in football with 20 targets. At the time of his catch, Hill has generated 3.1 yards of separation, the same mark as Randall Cobb and Jarvis Landry

T.Y. Hilton has 150-yards in 2-of-3 games.

Chris Hogan has five touchdown receptions in four games. He’s also scored his last two on the road.

DeAndre Hopkins has five touchdowns his last three home games. He’s second in the NFL with 35 receptions.

Adam Humphries has at least 51 yards his last three games. He’s also failed to score this season, and in two outings, he’s caught two and three passes. Moderate is thy name.

Allen Hurns has scored his last two games at home. The last three games, he’s caught only nine balls for 83 yards, as the passing attack of the Jaguars has ground to a halt.

Alshon Jeffrey has had some brutal matchups with some top shelf defensive backs. The result has been three games under 40-yards and four games under 60 yards for the Eagles. His average of 49.2 yards a game is more than 20-yards from his 70.5 career mark. Things should improve as the matchups turn in his favor.

Jermaine Kearse has three touchdowns in four games. He’s also failed to reach 43 yards his last three games and has averaged 3.75 receptions the last four games.

Jarvis Landry has averaged 7.2 receptions a game the last five road games. Teammate Devante Parker has four touchdowns his last six on the road.

Marqise Lee was supposed to be a thing this season. Hasn’t really happened. He hasn’t scored. He has seen just seven targets, catching four passes the last two weeks for 68 yards.

Tyler Lockett is not a thing folks. Everyone, every week, sends me questions about the mighty mite. I still cannot figure out why. He hasn’t scored in five games. He has just one game with more than five targets. He hasn’t reached 70-yards in a game this season. Again, not sure why I get questions about him each week.

Jeremy Maclin has seen 14 targets the last two games, catching nine of them. Alas, he’s only produce 72 yards and no scores the last three games.

The last three games at home Rishard Matthews has averaged seven receptions, 91 yards and 0.67 touchdowns.

Donte Moncrief has scored four times his last five on the road. He’s scored twice in the last three meetings with the Titans.

J.J. Nelson has scored eight times in 10 games.

Jordy Nelson leads the NFL with six receiving scores. He has three in the past two meetings with the Vikings.

Emmanuel Sanders has averaged 8.5 targets a game. It hasn’t helped in the yardage category, though, as he’s fallen from 64.5 last season to just 47.5 yards a game this season.

Demaryius Thomas hasn’t scored in 10 games. He doesn’t have a red zone target this season. He has caught at least four passes in 13-of-14 at home.

Michael Thomas has caught at least five passes in every game. Last season, he averaged 75.8 yards a game. This season, the mark is 77.5. He’s also scored in 2-straight games.

Mike Wallace is averaging 4.4 targets a game this season. The mark was 7.1 last season. The Ravens offense has scored nine touchdowns in five games this season.

Do the Rams realize that Sammy Watkins is their most talented receiver? He didn’t see a single target last week. Through five games, he’s also last amongst the “pass catchers” with the Rams in targets per rout run: Higbee: 22.3 percent, Kupp: 21.5, Gurley: 21.0, Woods, 18.1 and Watkins: 13.7. For all the talk of the Rams’ offense stepping up, that’s flat out putrid.

Mike Williams will make his NFL debut this weekend for the Chargers. His return could torpedo the value of Tyrell Williams who, simply put, hasn’t done much of anything this season with only one game of 11 fantasy points. Tyrell caught one pass for 22 yards last week.

Touchdown leaders inside the 10-yard line: DeAndre Hopkins 4, Jordy Nelson 4, Chris Hogan 2, Allen Hurns 2, Michael Thomas 2, Cole Beasley 2, Paul Richardson 2, Michael Crabtree 2, Bennie Fowler 2, Andre Holmes 2.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Cameron Brate has scored in 3-straight games. He’s scored in 4-straight on the road. Despite all the scores, his average game this season has been 3.75 receptions and 51.3 yards, a 16-game pace of 60 receptions and 821 yards.

Ed Dickson has appeared on 182 of 183 Panthers snaps since Greg Olsen went down. Still, despite the 175 yards last week, Dickson has seen just nine targets the last two games, though, that is the fourth most on the team.

Jack Doyle has dropped three passes on his 20 catchable throws. Same time, he has only one game with more than 41 yards. He also hasn’t scored this season.

Zach Ertz is tied for third in the NFL with 32 receptions. He’s caught at least five passes in his last six games. He’s also seen at least eight targets in every game this season. You can make a strong argument that he’s the strongest weekly play at the position.

Coby Fleener leads the position with 68.2 percent of his snaps coming out of the slot. Zach Miller (66.4) and Martellus Bennett (64.1) round out the top three. Jason Witten leads with 21 targets out of the slot. Unsurprisingly, he also leads the way with 18 slot receptions.

Rob Gronkowski has scored six times in eight meetings with the Jets. He’s only scored five times his last 12 games overall. Over that time, he’s also averaged just 3.75 receptions a game, well below his 4.6 career mark.

Hunter Henry has scored the last two meetings with the Raiders. He scored the last two weeks overall and has either a touchdown or 80 yards in 3-of-4 games.

Travis Kelce has a concussion and his outlook for Week 6 is muddled. He leads the position with four receptions of at least 20-yards. Kelce has at least 98 yards in 3-of-4 games. The other game, he had one yard.

Jordan Reed has averaged 4.7 receptions a game this season, a half catch below his 5.3 career rate. He’s 20 yards below his average game effort at 35.0. He also hasn’t scored this season. Over the last 15 games, he’s caught 80 passes which is great, but the 791 yards and six scores really doesn’t stand out, despite his talent.

Kyle Rudolph has scored twice in the last two home games against the Packers. He scored last week against the Bears on the road. His season high for yards is still just 45, and he has just one game with more than four receptions in five outings.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins has run a route on 81 percent of the Jets passing plays. He’s also been the recipient of 22 percent of the Jets targets since he returned to action.

For more on tight ends see the Week 6 TE Breakdown.

For more delicious numbers, check out the Week 6 Stat-Pack.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7-10 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys).