Coffin Corner - NFL Waiver-Wire, Week 11

Posted on 2017-11-13 16:17 by Ray Flowers

 

RAY FLOWERS      

 

Each week Ray Flowers will do his best to guess who might be available on the waiver-wire in your league to help you out. He’ll guess, not knowing your team situation or your league setup, what percentage of your budget you should be willing to part with in order to add the flavors of the week in free agency. Hopefully he can help you to avoid the pitfalls that often accompany the mad rush to the waiver-wire to add the newest shiny toy.


* The $ in parenthesis is a percentage to be spent on the player. Therefore, a 20-25 number is 20-25 percent, i.e. 20-25 in a $100 FAAB league or 200-250 in a $1,000 league.

** Players are listed in alphabetical order. Use the $ figures to establish the order you should be bidding on players this week if you are in a league that doesn’t use the FAAB system. 

BYE WEEKS: Panthers, Colts, Jets, 49ers

 

QUARTERBACKS

Blaine Gabbert, Cardinals (3-5 percent): Drew Stanton hurt his knee in Week 10, and it’s unclear if he will be able to go in Week 11. However, the team signed Matt Barkley so it would seem that the Cardinals are concerned. Gabbert seems likely to make a start in Week 11. At least that’s my read of the situation. He’s a fairly athletic option, but he’s nothing special. Certainly, seems a like a better start for the Cards than Stanton, and a better move for the offense to have him starting. You don’t want him as anything other than a QB2 in fantasy.

Jimmy Garoppolo, Niners (5-8 percent): The Niners looked good in Week 10, but it was against the Giants. The Niners have a bye in Week 11, and the belief is that they would move to Garoppolo over C.J. Beathard after that bye. However, it sounds like the Niners haven’t made their minds up. I’m still expecting J.G. to be the starter in Week 12, but you can’t add him this week without knowing for sure if he will play, can you?

Brett Hundley, Packers (6-8 percent): He looked much better this week, much better. He was composed, patient, started to show a nice rapport with Davante Adams, and completed 18-for-25 for 212 yards and a score. He didn’t throw a pick, and displayed some nice touch. All that said, the backfield is trashed, he has just two passing scores in four outings, and he still hasn’t found a way to get the ball to Jordy Nelson. Hundley does have two rushing scores in three outings, and that certainly boosts his moderate passing totals.

DeShone Kizer, Browns (4-5 percent): Like Hundley, he looked better. Kizer was hurt late, took a shot to the ribs, so keep an eye on his health. That said, he ran for a second score in two games, and he threw for 232 yards and a score. His athleticism is apparent, but this is still a moderate offense that has started to establish a running game the past few weeks. Kizer hasn’t thrown for 245 yards and has just one passing score in five outings, so he’s still more of a DFS play than anything.

Eli Manning, Giants (7-10 percent): I get it. He looks dumb. The team is horrible. But fantasy is a game of numbers. Here are some. (4) The number of touchdown passes the last two games. (1) The number of picks in four outings. There are far worse options than Eli under center, so make sure that you simply aren’t ignoring him because he’s a Giant... and Eli Manning.

Mitch Trubisky, Bears (3-5 percent): Had his best passing game of the season throwing for 297 yards. That was his first game over 165 yards. He still has one touchdown pass in three games and three in five games. Repeat this. Trubisky has one game with 165 passing yards. He’s averaging 0.60 touchdown passes a game.

RUNNING BACKS

Matt Breida, Niners (6-10 percent): Carried the ball nine times for 55 yards and a score in Week 10. Many things to know. (1) The Giants were the opponent, and the term pathetic isn’t a strong enough term to describe that unit. (2) Carlos Hyde carried the ball 17 times for 98 yards and caught two more passes. (3) That’s 16 or more touches for Hyde in 5-straight games. He’s still the RB1 with the Niners, and it’s not close. (4) Breida was only utilized cause the Niners were throttling the Giants. Breida is good for 7-10 touches a week, but he has just two scores all season and has just one game with six carries his last five outings. The Niners are on bye in Week 11.

Rex Burkhead, Patriots (7-10 percent): He scored as a pass catcher and blocked a punt. He’s a really good player. He also saw 13 touches leading to 63 yards. The issues are many though. (1) James White is a better pass catcher. (2) Dion Lewis scored as a runner and kick returner in Week 10. Lewis carried the ball 14 times, his average the last three games. (3) Here are the Wek 10 snap counts: Burkhead 36, Lewis 21, White 11, Brandon Bolden 3. It’s different every game with the Pats, if you haven’t paid attention the last seven years. All we know for certain is that Mike Gillislee is no longer a thing. Burkhead can be added, but a seven-point fantasy game next time out cannot be ruled out.

Trey Edmunds, Saints (1 percent): As I noted in Monday Morning Thoughts, the Saints simply throttled the Bills without mercy. Edmunds is a nobody that was only turned to cause of the game situation. He had that 41-yard TD run, but the 9-48-1 box score is not indicative of what should be expected (he didn’t carry the ball before Week 10).

Austin Ekeler, Chargers (10-13 percent): Melvin Gordon has one game in four outings with a 3.35 yards per carry mark. On the year, the mark is 3.8 which is awful. His career mark is 3.7 which is awful. He’s really Mr. Volume has he has never been effective on a per touch basis. Realize that in 2-of-3 game that he’s carried the ball at least 16 times while failing to run for 40-yards. He’s still the lead back, especially since Ekeler fumbled late, but if you watched the game this weekend the back that looked better was Ekeler. He was also way more effective with 119 yards and two scores on 15 touches (five grabs). That said, he was only on the field for 33 percent of the snaps, and did lose that ball late. He has a role, but he’s nothing more than a flex option at the moment. He’s not a standalone play.

Elijah McGuire, Jets (8-11 percent): From my Monday column. “With Matt Forte down, Elijah McGuire carried the ball eight times for 22 yards and caught four balls for 36 yards. He out-touched Bilal Powell 12-to-11. Clearly, the Jets simply do not trust Powell, and I was wrong in thinking they would this week (Powell had 33 snaps to 36 for Elijah). Powell carried the ball 10 times for 30 yards and caught one ball for six yards.” I don’t understand why the Jets seem to have no faith in Powell. At this point, he’s not a startable commodity, even when the matchup seems to suggest he is. McGuire though, is he startable? Hard to say yes at this point either. McGuire saw 52 percent of the snaps in Week 10, but he’s averaging a mere 3.8 YPC and has just one touchdown on 79 touches. The Jets backs are simply canceling each other out at this point.  

Samaje Perine, Redskins (7-10 percent): It sounds like Rob Kelley has an MCL sprain and a high ankle sprain after being injured in Week 10. He’s going to miss time. Chris Thompson has one game this season with 40 rushing yards. The last three games he’s carried the ball 17 times with a 3.76 yards a carry. He’s not a thing on the ground. That leaves a role for Perine. The rookie has produced 3.2 yards a carry and doesn’t have a rushing score. He’s also failed to impress on the eye test either. Has the look of a flex option at best.

Rod Smith, Cowboys (10-12 percent): Smith was a thing with 39 snaps in Week 10, almost doubles the 21 of Alfred Morris (DMC had one snap). That said, Smith didn’t touch the ball as much as the snap count would suggest. Smith carried the ball three times and caught four passes leading to seven touches and 29 yards. Morris carried the ball 11 times for 53 yards. Morris saw half as many snaps, but saw 50 percent more touches. Keep that in mind before you go all in with Smith.

Jamaal Williams, Packers (10-11 percent): Aaron Jones is going to miss 3-6 weeks with an MCL injury. That’s the rest of the fantasy regular season, and potentially all of the playoffs. Ty Montgomery injured his ribs yet again, and he too was removed from Week 10 game-action. That might mean that Williams is the only dog to turn to with the Packers in Week 11. He touched the ball 21 times producing 74 yards. He’s a pretty moderate talent, but if you’re looking at a workload of 20 touches, you’re a potential fantasy play, period. Keep an eye on the health situation with Montgomery, who even if healthy, may only be used as the third-down back at this point.

Danny Woodhead, Ravens (8-11 percent): At this point, we’re not sure if Woodhead will be able to play this week or not. Out with a hamstring issue, both the player and the coach have expressed concern over his availability this week. Out since Week 1 with a hamstring injury, it’s pretty clear that the team is being very cautious with his return to the gridiron. With Buck Allen and Alex Collins doing a passable job, there’s no rush. Even when back, how could you trust Woodhead his first game back?

T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars (3-5 percent): Leonard Fournette ran the ball 17 times for 33 yards. He also caught two balls for 19 touches, so it’s hard to think the team was concerned about his health. That said, he didn’t look sharp leading to all the work for Yeldon (three carries, six receptions). Yeldon should still continue to see the ball, but he’s nothing more than a desperation flex option in PPR setups, if even that, unless Fournette is inactive. You know the Jags won’t be throwing the ball 51 times, as they did in Week 10, any time soon.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Corey Coleman, Browns (7-12 percent): The youngster will return and be an all-systems-go option in Week 11. Coleman saw 13 targets in Week 1-2, and he should see at least that volume of passes now that his hand is healed. (1) Though Kizer looked better in Week 10 he’s nowhere near being an accomplished passer. (2) The Browns aren’t a good offensive team. (3) The matchup in Week 11 is with the Jaguars, so even if adding Coleman, you know you can’t be starting him this week.

Bruce Ellington, Texans (3-6 percent): The Texans passing game has predictably failed with Tom Savage under center. Even if they turn to T.J. Yates, it ain’t getting better (sounds like it will still be Savage). Will Fuller suffered cracked ribs in Week 10 and his outlook in the short-term is unknown. That said, why are you looking at Ellington? OK, he’s seen 16 targets the last two weeks and theoretically would see his role improve if Fuller is down. But note that Ellington has just seven receptions for 63 yards the last two games and the guy has 342 yards in 34 NFL contests. He’s a warm body on a team that is struggling to move the ball through the air.

Chris Godwin, Buccaneers (1-2 percent): Saw 10 targets in Week 10. He had seen 12 targets all season before that outing in which he caught five balls for 68 yards. With Mike Evans returning this week look for Goodwin to struggles to reach five targets in Week 11, a number he has only reached one time this season.

Marquise Goodwin, Niners (5-8 percent): Lost his son who was born prematurely, but he went out and still made a play in Week 10 scoring on an 83-yard touchdown. Kudos to the man. Goodwin has produced at least 68 yards in 3-of-4 games and 4-of-6 outings. Alas, he has one touchdown all season long and just two games of four receptions (three catches his last three games). He’s nothing other than a burner trying to get behind a defense. The Niners are on bye in Week 11.

Kenny Golladay, Lions (4-5 percent): He returned, he caught two balls for 64 yards. He played 11 snaps. No reason to go here.

Dontrelle Inman, Bears (6-8 percent): Here is from the Week 9 Waiver article. “...if I was adding a Bears wideout I would 100 percent lean to Inman who was added in a trade last week.” In his first game with the Bears he saw eight targets catching six balls for 88 yards. He is the Bears wideout to own. Same time, as you read above with Trubisky, this is not a team that has had much success throwing the ball. You have to look at the Week 10 effort from Inman and realize that is the upside in 2017 in this offense.

Donte Moncrief (3-5 percent) / Chester Rogers, Colts (3-5 percent): The first thing you need to know is that Jacoby Brissett is dealing with a concussion. Second, the Colts have a bye in Week 11. Third, neither man has been productive (even the great T.Y. Hilton is all over the place this season). Moncrief had his value crushed with the loss of Andrew Luck. Crushed. Donte scored on a 60-yard grab in Week 10, but he also had two receptions in three games and he has just one outing this season with more than three receptions. Rogers scored in Week 10 on his way to a 6-104-1 line against the Steelers. That was his first touchdown in 19 games. It was his first game this season with more than 21 yards. I’m not in the business of rostering WR3’s on teams that average 205 passing yards a game who has thrown for nine scores in 10 games.

TIGHT ENDS

Garrett Celek, Niners (1 percent): As noted in my Monday Morning piece, Celek wasn’t touched on his touchdown. The Giants are a historically awful defense that has no clue at all how to stop the tight end. Oh, George Kittle was out with an injury as well. Celek is not a thing. The Niners are on bye in Week 11.

Eric Ebron, Lions (1-4 percent): He scored against the second worst pass D against tight ends (the Browns). So what? Ebron has one score since Week 2. He has three touchdowns his last 22 outings. He has one game of 45-yards this season. He has one game with more than three receptions this season. #MoveOn

C.J. Fiedorowicz, Texans (3-5 percent): CJF seems like the only healthy tight end the Texans have. He saw six targets in Week 10, his first game back since Week 1 (concussion), catching two balls for 10 yards. The only player you can trust in this offense is DeAndre Hopkins. Period. Savage/Yates simply stink. CJF is coming off a season of 54 grabs, and he might end up posting those 8-11 PPR point games that are so exciting to all of us if you want to take the plunge.

Jermaine Gresham, Cardinals (2-4 percent): He has scored in 2-straight games. However, the Cards might be changing quarterbacks this week and Gresham has produced five touchdowns the last 39 outings. The last time he averaged 33 receiving yards a game was in 2012. In the right matchup maybe, but even then there’s just not enough confidence in his ability to produce.

Greg Olsen, Panthers (15 percent): Olsen is likely to return in Week 12 (knee). The Panthers are on a bye in Week 11, so if you add Olsen you will have to wait a bit. He’s likely to return as the top pass-catching option if he is indeed fully healthy. There just aren’t many tight ends you can trust weekly. Olsen is one of those guys – if he’s healthy.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys).