New Analytics in Fantasy Football

Posted on 2017-09-05 13:06 by Graham Barfield

 

GRAHAM BARFIELD      

 

It’s not easy to find excellent resources for NFL DFS. There are new stats that pop up seemingly every season that provides new ways to evaluate at the game.

That’s what this column is all about.

Here’s your catalog of NFL DFS resources, stats, and how to use them to your advantage:

 

Quarterbacks

Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt (AY/A): Adjusts for touchdowns and interceptions to provide a more wholesome view of quarterbacks. AY/A is more predictive of fantasy points than yards per pass attempt (YPA).

Air Yards (AY): Calculated as passing yards minus yards after the catch – but it is much more useful for pass catchers. For wide receivers and tight ends, air yards are calculated as receiving yards from the line of scrimmage to the catch point.

Passing TD Rate (TD%): Divides touchdowns by pass attempts. We want to target efficiency over volume at quarterback.

Red-zone TD Rate (RZ TD%): Same thing as passing TD rate, but adjusted for passes throw inside of the 20-, 10-, or 5-yard line.

 

Running Backs

Missed Tackle Rate: Percentage of missed tackles a running back forces on a per attempt basis.

Opportunities: Running back targets plus rush attempts. This widens the sample from traditional “touches”.

Red-zone carry rate: Percentage of carries inside of the opponents’ 20-yard line. This stat can be split to encompass different field positions, too (inside-10, inside-5, etc.).

Success Rate: Percentage of carries that added to a team’s win probability.

Target Share (Tgt%): Percentage of passing targets directed at a particular RB, WR or TE in games that the player was active.

Team Share of Air Yards: A specific RB, WR, or TE’s percentage of Air Yards he sees on a per game basis, relative to his team.

Team Share of Carries, Touchdowns, or Yards: A running backs share of attempts, touchdowns, or yards – relative to only his team.

Team Share of Carries: Percentage of rushes a particular RB had in games that the player was active.

Yards Gained per Opportunity: Average amount of yards gained per carry or target.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Air Yards (AY): Calculated as passing yards minus yards after the catch – but it is much more useful for pass catchers. For wide receivers and tight ends, air yards are calculated as receiving yards from the line of scrimmage to the catch point. (Air Yards are incredibly important for receiver output).

Deep Ball (or Deep Ball Rate): Measures the total number of passing attempts – or yards – that travel 20 yards or more yards in the air. 

Red-zone Target Share (RZ Tgt%): Percentage of passing targets directed at a particular RB, WR or TE in the red-zone (inside of the 20-yard line) in games that the player was active.

Red-zone Touchdowns per Target: The percentage of red-zone targets a receiver takes to the house for a score. 

Slot Rate: A PlayerProfiler metric that looks at “the percentage of passing down snaps a wide receiver or tight end lines up in the slot. To qualify as a slot receiver on any given play, a receiver must be lined up inside and covered up by a outside receiver in either three or four-receiver sets.”

Target Share (Tgt%): Percentage of passing targets directed at a particular RB, WR or TE in games that the player was active.

Team Share of Air Yards: A RB, WR, or TE’s percentage of Air Yards he sees on a per game basis, relative to his team.

Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR): Simply a receiver or tight end’s team share of air yards plus team share of targets.

 

Projection-Specific Terms

Bust Rate: Defined as outside the top-20 scorers at QB and TE, top-36 scorers for RBs, and top-48 scorers for WRs on a per week basis.

Ceiling/Floor: A measure of volatility that shows a players range of outcome based on their high-end (ceiling) and low-end expectations (floor).

Consistency: Percentage of games in which a quarterback/tight end finishes top-12 at the position or a running back/wide receiver finishes top-24 at their position.

Fantasy Points Allowed: Obvious term, but can be filtered in different ways – like fantasy points allowed per touch (for RBs) – to become more useful.

Implied Points: A set number of points you would expect a player to score at their salary, based on historical data.

 

Player-Specific Efficiency Metrics

Fantasy Points Per Snap: Average fantasy points earned per snap.

Fantasy Points Per Target: Average fantasy points earned per target.

Fantasy Points Per Touch: Average fantasy points earned every time a running back touches the ball.

QB Fantasy Points Per Passing Attempt: (without rushing stats included): A measure of quarterback efficiency.

 

Miscellaneous Terms

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average): From FootballOutsiders – “Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.”

Involvement rate: Percentage of plays on which a running back, tight end, or receiver saw a target or carry.

Pace of Play: A FootballOutsiders’ stat that measures seconds in between offensive plays.

Play Call Splits: A team’s percentage of rushes or passes called on a per game basis.

Snap rate: Percentage of team snaps the player was on the field.

Yards per Drive: A team’s yardage gained on a per drive basis.

Yards per Play: Offensive yardage gained on a per play basis.