NFL Strategy Articles | FantasyGuruElite

NFL Strategy Articles

 NFL Betting for the Sharp Bettor: Part 3
Posted by @PlusEVAnalytics on Monday, September 11, 2017 - 09:15

In this final instalment of my NFL betting series, we will go deeper into ways to find +EV bets for yourself. But first, a confession.

+EV Ain’t Easy

Loyal readers, I haven’t lied to you but I have misled you. I’ve been talking about +108 coin flips and 25 projected completions when the line is 23.5 as if they are everyday occurrences. The real truth is this – if someone offers you +108 on a coin flip, it’s most likely a weighted coin. If you have Tom Brady projected for 25 completions when the line is 23.5, your projections are most likely wrong. The simple reason is that every bet has two sides.


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 Winning a Live Final
Posted by Thad Houston on Thursday, September 7, 2017 - 17:03

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“So, you say you want to qualify for a live final?”

Quick show of hands. Who’s interested in qualifying for a live final? Wow! It looks like there are a lot of you out there. I’ll give those of you that didn’t raise your hand a chance to reconsider because, trust me, you’re interested in qualifying for a live final. Over the years, I’ve been to my fair share of life finals (currently nine and counting), so I feel like I might know a thing or two when it comes to qualifying. If last year is any indication, this will be a huge NFL season for the Guru Elite family. Now, I love to get my “Scrooge McDuck on” each week as much as the next guy, but what better way to top off a great NFL season than with a trip to a live final?


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 Game Flow/Script
Posted by Kevin Adams on Wednesday, September 6, 2017 - 13:42

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When I start making DFS line-ups I try to project how a particular game will play out. Football is such a unique game, the style and philosophy of a team and its opponent changes from season to season, week to week. Those who can predict how teams will structure their game plan have a big edge in DFS. Unlike seasonal fantasy football, we only care about ONE Sunday. We don’t get the luxury of buying a players complete output for a season, no we have to identify and select player in situations that will exceed or at minimum reach their projection or average.


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 Cash Game Guide
Posted by Bryce Mauro on Tuesday, September 5, 2017 - 08:32

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Elite Mafia, what’s good? For those of you who haven’t seen me around I mainly do NBA content for us. My username on FD/DK is 3rd_and_schlong, and I play a lot of cash games (and some tournaments) in the three major spots: NFL, NBA, and MLB. I started playing initially when I was in college and things kind of took off after that. My twitter is @brycemauro. Through this article my goal is to make you guys better cash game players. I’m going to split this into three sections: Game Entry, Cash Game Concepts, and Site Specific Strategy. 


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 NFL Betting for the Sharp Bettor: Part 2
Posted by @PlusEVAnalytics on Monday, September 4, 2017 - 09:11

In my last article, we explored the concept of EV and how to apply it to the evaluation of some common NFL prop bets. In this, the second in the series of 3 articles, we'll discuss what to do when you identify that something is a good bet. Proper bet sizing can be the difference between the penthouse and the poor house!

 

+EV Revisited

Let's return to an example from my last article.

If you had the opportunity to bet $1 on a coin flip at +108 odds, should you take it?


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 Balanced Lineup or Stars and Scrubs?
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Sunday, September 3, 2017 - 14:27

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Daily Fantasy Sports would be easy and boring if you were able to roster the best players at every position on one lineup. The fun and the challenge comes in figuring out the best way to allocate your resources. Luckily, we have the constraint of the salary cap to add that extra element of skill. The fact that we have a salary cap poses the question of how best to allocate our resources to various players when we build our rosters. We can try to allocate it evenly and create a balanced team of solid players at every position. We could also choose to pay up for some superstars and hope to round out our rosters with some cheap guys who can perform well enough to help us keep pace. That would allow the high priced stars to help us win if they can put up the big numbers they are more likely to produce. What we want to know as players is whether one strategy yields better results than the other???


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 Vegas Lines as Tools for Selecting Defenses
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Saturday, September 2, 2017 - 16:54

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One of the biggest misconceptions in NFL DFS is Vegas lines are the best predictor of who the top scoring defenses will be. It drives me nuts when I hear people say things like, "I am using this defense because their opponent has the lowest implied total." I also hate when people say that a defense is a great play because the total of the game is low. This line of thinking does not jive with the way fantasy points are scored by your defense, and can lead you astray.

 


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 What Position to Use in the Flex
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Friday, September 1, 2017 - 14:33

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This question is one that we have to break down a little further before we can answer it. The type of game you are playing definitely plays a part in which position you should use in your Flex spot. The prevailing thought is that you are better off using a wide receiver in your flex for tournament rosters and a running back in cash games. The numbers here show that this approach has some validity, but the answer is not as clear-cut as you may think.


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 Rake and Game Selection
Posted by Jeff Collins on Friday, September 1, 2017 - 08:54

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Most players that are successful in DFS long-term spend a good amount of effort thinking about the rake in contests and game selection in every slate. In a game of constantly decreasing edge, it's important to find every small advantage. In this article I'll use specific examples from Week One of the 2017 NFL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel to identify profitable opportunities.


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 Bankroll Management
Posted by Benny Ricciardi on Thursday, August 31, 2017 - 16:07

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What is your goal for this NFL season? Is it to have some fun and stay in the game? Is it to qualify for a live final? Are you looking to make a life changing score? I ask these questions, because I am about to let you in on a little secret here. There is no one size fits all bankroll management technique. Certain principles do apply, but how a bankroll should be managed is very different from person to person.

Look inside the successful players in our own company. You have guys like Tommy, DC, Kevin, and Jefe who are predominately tournament players. They put large sums of money in play every weekend of NFL season and are looking to make 5 and 6 figure scores. They may lay out 4 and 5 figures on a particular slate and the swings in their profit/loss statement are huge.


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