I’m using some NHL advanced stats (just like we do for baseball), so here’s a little cheat sheet of what they mean:
QS%: Just like a pitcher deliver a quality start, so do goalies. It’s when the goalie achieves at least the mean save percentage (for the season) in a game.
GSAA: Goals Saved Above Average. You take the league average save percentage and apply it to the amount of shots a particular goalie has faced. You get a number of goals that the average goalie in the league would have surrendered, if they faced the same number of shots as the goaltender in question. That number gets compared to the number of goals surrendered by that goaltender, and a plus/minus is created.
GAA: Goals against average.
GFA: Goals for average.
SV%: Save percentage.
OTT @ TOR
Moneyline: TOR -152
Total: Over 5.5 -106
OTT Starter: Mike Condon, $7,400
TOR Starter: Frederik Andersen, $7,800
I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again, I don’t think the Sens expected Derick Brassard to be barely over a 40 point pace when they traded Zibanejad for him. He should be better than this, especially because he’s playing with star winger Mark Stone. He has in fact been better lately, and maybe that continues into a little hot streak.
For the Leafs, it’s basically like playing roulette deciding which combos to stack. I think Nazem Kadri and William Nylander is a good one tonight. I really like Nylander’s price point and the two have been a good combo ever since being paired together.
- Moneyline: BOS -170
- Total: Over 5 -141
- CHI Starter: Scott Darling, $7,600
- BOS Starter: Tuukka Rask, $7,400
DAL @ NYI
Moneyline: NYI -107
Total: Over 5.5 -113
DAL Starter: Kari Lehtonen, $7,600
NYI Starter: Thomas Greiss, $7,400
Today is another one of those days where goaltending is going to be hard to come by. Thomas Greiss is an excellent option considering he’s the cheaper goalie here despite being favored and at home. I’d be a little worried about going up against the Stars, but I’d rather take the risk than pay for chalk in net.
ARI @ WPG
Moneyline: WPG -180
Total: Under 5.5 -109
ARI Starter: Mike Smith, $7,100
WPG Starter: Ondrej Pavelec, $6,800
The Jets are stumbling and here comes Ondrej Pavelec to save the day! The good news for you is that the guys who do the pricing didn’t realize he was coming to town and now we’ve got the heaviest favored team with a goalie under $7K against a team with zero offensive talent. It wouldn’t surprise me remotely to see Pavelec’s ownership well over 50 percent, so if you want to steer clear that’s understandable, but he’s an easy play at his stupid price.
DAL @ NYR
Moneyline: NYR -168
Total: Under 6 -115
DAL Starter: Antti Niemi, $7,100
NYR Starter: Henrik Lundqvist, $8,200
The Dallas Stars did not come to play yesterday and got dummied by a pretty weak Sabres team. Expect a better effort here against the Rangers who actually aren’t all that strong defensively. As good as their forward depth is too, their top-end talent isn’t all that great and they should be overpowered by the Stars’ top guys. Jame Benn used to be an $8K+ guy all of last year, but a sub-par first half has pushed him to mid-$6K numbers. He’s only got 10 goals on the season and is also not shooting nearly as much as he has in the past. It’s possible he was dealing with an injury, but with some time off recently it wouldn’t surprise me to see him have a monster second half. I like Patrick Eaves as well now that he’s back on the top line and John Klingberg has been just spectacular lately.