Tommy G's GOT Prop Bets

Posted on 2019-04-14 16:00 by Tommy G



From the only person in America who predicted (and has documented) that the little kid would kill Jon Snow and then he would rise from the dead….8 episodes before it happened…...I bring you…..




There are many sites offering game of thrones props, but most are capped so you can’t bet em too huge.  The unit counts here are more just to give u an idea of how confident I am in the plays rather than and “actual unit bet” since most sites are capped with their bet amounts.  I basically just googled GOT props and went to like 10 diff sites to find all available props, so don’t start asking me 1,000 question on “where did u find this” on twitter. You have the internet… it and find it yourself.   I have DESTROYED all the predictions on this show from the beginning and am EXTREMELY confident in everything below. There are other props I looked at that I had a feel on, but there are the ones that if I was in Vegas and they let me bet $2,000 per unit (which is my usual size) then I would play this sheet TO THE LETTER and risk about 100k on the outcome of this show.  Unfortunately that is not possible since the limits on these plays are so low, but that is how confident I am in this sheet!


Who Will Rule Westeros: Sansa +600

Shockingly of all the props, this is the one I am the least confident in.  The chalk is Dany, Jon, Bran and Sansa obviously….of those 4 I think Sansa leaves the most to be desired.  Jon won’t want the throne so I crossed him out. Bran and Dany’s price is not that enticing since they are so chalky on most sites so there is not much value there.  Sansa is listed anywhere from +500 to +650 depending on the site. I think she is worth a stab. I personally am going to take some long shots here for value along with Sansa.

Sansa +600   1 unit to win 6   (last 2 seasons have been leaning towards her)


Long shots worth a stab:

  • Gendry +900  .25 units (There's a reason he’s been kept around, plus has “kings blood”)
  • Little FInger +1800  .1 unit (I personally don’t think he’s dead)
  • Sam Tully +3300  .1 unit (He is my lock to survive, so survival makes him in play)


Odds to Die: (most odds are like -1200 and shit, here are the bettable ones)

  • Sandor -300            3 units to win 1 unit
  • Melisandre -430      4.3 units to win 1 unit
  • Theon -200             2 units to win 1 unit
  • Tyrion -175             3.5 to win 2 units (yup! Tyrion it)
  • Gilly +250                1 to win 2.5 (this is a RISKY one, but worth a stab)
  • Bronn +125              1 to win 1.25 (I would hate to see it, but I think he’s a goner)

Is Danaerys Pregnant? Yes -250 (7.5 units to win 3 units)

How are these odds so low? She is 100% pregnant and will give birth to a son.  Max bet this fuckin thing at any price u find on any site u find it.


Who Dies First Cercei or Dany:  Cercei -200, (6 units to win 3 units)

This may be the easiest prop on the board for me since I think there is a slim chance Dany dies and a 99% chance Cercei dies.  Not much analysis needed here, this line should be -900.


Will Danaerys Survive the Final Season: Yes -115 (3.45 to win 3)

There is obviously a chance that Dany dies this season, and I know a lot of my friends seem to think it will actually be while giving birth to her and Jon’s baby, which would make sense.  The problem here is that women tend to not only survive, but thrive, all the time in this show. I think Dany is too pure to kill off honestly. Dany, Sansa & Arya are all fantastic bets to survive, with Arya being the one most likely to die, but I think they all make it, I just can’t seem to find props on Sansa or Arya to live anywhere.


Will Jon Snow Survive the Season: Yes -115 (3.45 to win 3)

How is this -115? This should be -500.  The only way Jon does not survive the season is if he (almost intentionally) dies to come back as a white walker and destroy them from within.  Jon ain’t fuckin going anywhere. Dany is far more likely to die than Jon and I think they both make it thru.

Will the Throne be Destroyed: Yes +120,  (2 units to win 2.4 units)

From what I know about George RR Martin, it seems he is the type who does not believe in a “king” (and is somewhat anti war for that matter, which is odd for a guy who wrote a show about wars and battles), so I believe the throne will be destroyed.  I have also noticed that most books have changed the name of the props from “who will sit on the iron throne” to “who will rule westeros” which may also be an indication that there will be no throne.


Who Will Kill Cersei: Arya +225  (1 to win 2.25 units)

I personally have believed Arya will kill Cersei for a long time, as have many others, but the favorite is obviously Jaime after the events of the last couple seasons.  My theory I have been saying on multiple outlets is that it will indeed be Jaime to kill Cersei, BUT it will actually be Arya wearing Jaime’s face. I am assuming this would be paid out as an Arya kill, so I am taking the +300 on Arya here, with the outlandish plot twist.


Last Character to Speak in Season 8 Finale: Samuel Tarly +300 (1 unit to win 3 units)

Myself and Pat Mayo (on No Mercy Episode 57) both agree that Sam makes it to the end of the show and is the character most similar to George RR Martin.  It is not only possible, but likely, that Sam is either reading a story of the Game of Thrones or will be the final person remaining by the end of the season (mainly because he is the only person who has not wronged anyone the entire show and is extremely pure).  I personally do not think ANYONE ends up on the throne, but am very confident Sam will give the final send off.