MLB DG: Projections Models are Flawed
‘So Ray, I picked up a copy of your Draft Guide, and while I love it, I’m pissed off that it doesn’t include projections. What’s up guy?’
I hear something like this every year, and I totally get it. I think it’s totally off base, but I get it.
Growing up, one of the best times of the year was every January when I got my hands on that year’s draft guide. The breakout stars, the rankings, those were always my first two stops, but when the high passed and I started digging into things, I was always intrigued by the projections. Did you see that Player A is only predicted to hit 24 a year after hitting 25? Did you notice how Player B is expected to go from 180 strikeouts to 205? I loved it. At the same time, I never critically thought about the process that actually goes into the projections that I was fawning over. With the passage of decades, and the loss of hair, I’ve come to realize one unimpeachable fact: projections are fun, but really rather useless when it comes to rankings players for the coming season. Yes, I’m serious. Let me explain why.