By the Numbers Special Edition: Finding Undervalued Pitchers
I always think it is a good idea to be the first one to hop on a trend. Sometimes you can ride them out and bank a lot of money before other people catch on. One such example was using the big right-handed strikeout pitchers of the Indians this weekend. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco both threw up gems and were much lower owned than they should have been. The question is why?
The reason why they were such a good play is because of how bad their opponent has been early this season. The White Sox are the best matchup in the league for a right-handed strikeout pitcher. They have the combination of stats I like to look for when searching for teams to target against. I want a team that is in the top half of the league for strikeouts. I also want them to be at least 10% below the median for wOBA and wRC+ against the handedness of pitcher they face. What we are trying to do here is find the teams who are bad at hitting the baseball, so we can limit the damage they can potentially do. We also get the most upside due to the high strikeout rate. It seems so simple, but you would be surprised how often it leads to positive upside performances from under owned pitchers.