Recent Paylines - 5/9

Posted on 2017-05-09 15:33 by Roland White

 

ROLAND WHITE      

 

 

Last Week in Review

At a high-level, GPP pay lines can give us a general idea of what kind of score needed for minimum cash as well as the average score needed to win triple your entry fee, quintuple your entry fee, or land in first place.

This is good to know, if for nothing more than to give you a general idea of what scores you should aim for on a given night.

 

GPP Pay Lines by Entry Fee

If we drill down into the contests further and break them down by entry fee, we can start to see some differences.

You’ll notice the average first place score spikes a few places. In general, (and this applies to all sports) the first place scores increase as the number of entries increase.  

As far as the minimum cash pay line goes, there’s not a lot of variance between entry fees (this also applies to most sports). If anything, the minimum cash pay line decreases slightly as the number of contest entries increases.

 

Contest Selection

That’s why you hear so often that contest selection is everything. We all dream of taking down a giant GPP, but the odds are that you won’t. Ever.  So with that in mind, it’s important to think about which contests are going to give you the best return.

I’ve pulled numbers on a few contests in the $3-5 entry range from May 2 to give specific examples of where certain scores would have placed you in those contests and what you would have won.

In this example, let’s pretend that your lineup scored 198.9 on DraftKings. (This is a score that would have put you around the top 10% of most cash games that night.)

You would have placed first and won $43 in the $5 Contest. That’s over an 8X return!

Now let’s pretend you scored slightly lower. (This would have still placed you around the top 20% of all cash games that night.)

 

Ok. Tuesday was a wild night.  There were a ton of homeruns and it seems like everyone had a lineup that scored 170.

Let’s look at another example.  This time, let’s look at scores from Saturday, May 6.

It was a Coors slate, but overall, average first place and minimum cash pay lines were closer to the season average. This also means that overall lineup scores were lower. 

This time, we’ll pretend your lineup scored 165 (a score that would have put you in the top 10% of most cash games that night).

Here are results at a slightly lower score. 

Once again, the contest with the smallest field provided the best return overall

 

Wrapping it Up

Contest selection is still everything, especially if you’re a low-stakes player or have a smaller bankroll. Instead of just looking at the top payout, it’s important to consider the number of entries, maximum number of entries, and the payout structure of DFS contests. In the long term, it will provide you the best return so that you can grow your bankroll and play in higher entry contests.

Good luck and stay cashin’.